National Hunt – A A Racing

Classic Chase & Kempton Preview

There’s some excellent races for National Hunt purists today, and none better than the Classic Chase (3:00) at Warwick. Much like Sandown, the Midlands track demands quick and accurate jumping, with four fences exceptionally close together, and this extended test really tends to bring out the best of certain

The standout bet here is THE CONDITIONAL, because I’m surprised he is even here at all. After winning a very deep handicap at Cheltenham with ease, beating subsequent winners West Approach and Cogry in the process, he ran with huge credit to finish second in the Ladbrokes Trophy. That is by far the best form in the race, and if he is still on top form after those two efforts, a repeat performance should see him win against this weaker field.

There are two obvious dangers. Kimberlite Candy consistently runs well in competitive handicaps and should put in another bold display, but his only recent win came in a poor Class 3 handicap off a mark of just 133, yet he runs off 140 here versus The Conditional’s 142, and I believe the latter is a better horse. Le Breuil is rated 148 by the handicapper and runs off top weight here, and his victory in the gruelling National Hunt Chase proves he will stay. But his other form doesn’t really entitle him to such a lofty mark, and his jumping can sometimes be pedestrian, which will put him on the back foot at Warwick. I wouldn’t put you off an each-way play – with some firms giving generous terms – but again, The Conditional looks better treated.

Over at Kempton, a specialist seems to have gone somewhat under the radar, with good prices still available as I type. MERCIAN PRINCE is seeking a hat-trick in the Unibet Handicap Chase (1:30) and has clearly been prepared for the task by Amy Murphy with a spin over hurdles just before Christmas. The nine-year-old ran well at Catterick that day, showing he’s in good health, and he comes alive over course and distance: he won by 17 lengths off a mark of 139 last year, and won handily off a mark of 134 in 2018. He’s back down to a mark of 141, and the last time he ran from this sort of mark (143) in a race of this sort of class, he beat Romain De Senam at Plumpton.

Favourite Sammy Bill is the only other horse bringing good form to this contest, but he is up 11lb for his Aintree win, and the form of that race has not been franked since. As such, he could now be in the handicapper’s grip. Sao has long been talked about as a proper horse by Paul Nicholls, but has yet to show it on the track in the UK, so let’s hope this isn’t the day he puts it all together.

Later on the card at Kempton, ON THE BLIND SIDE is sure to go close in the 3:15 Handicap Chase, but his price is too short to put him up as a ‘tip’ given he’s far from a certainty. Walt, for example, came alive on his last visit to Kempton, and could be a major danger if he does so again.

Recommended Bets:

Kempton 1:30 – Mercian Prince 1pt e/w at 13/2 (BOG, general)

Warwick 3:00 – The Conditional 2pts win at 4/1 (BOG, general)

Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2019 Preview

As ever, the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup has a competitive field – as it should do with £73k to the winner – but the admin mix-up over the ante-post favourite Riders On The Storm has leant it an open feel, and with some generous bookie terms available, there is some value in the field.

In my mind, that value exists because there are question marks over the three market principals (as I type, anyway):

Cepage went up a mighty 8lbs for his second at Aintree, and though the form of that rate looks rock-solid, horses shouldering top weight have a poor record in this race, the exception being last year’s winner Frodon, who went on to win the Ryanair. I can’t see Cepage winning the Ryanair.
Brelan d’As has also been raised by the handicapper after a heroic second-place, but his second was behind Happy Diva at Cheltenham last month. Kerry Lee’s mare is an ultra-consistent sort, so this Caspian Caviar line-up would have to be a lot weaker than the BetVictor Gold Cup field for Paul Nicholl’s game eight-year-old to win this race, and I’m not convinced that’s the case.
Good Man Pat has every chance off this low mark of 136, which undersells his quality, but a horse who has shown such a propensity to jump badly in the past simply cannot be backed in a big Cheltenham handicap at 9/2 or shorter in my eyes.

The next two in the market are the ones that do interest me.

CLONDAW CASTLE lines up today off a mark of just 144, the same mark from which he finished second at Ascot in the extraordinary race won by Diego Du Charmil, who took out his stablemate Capeland at the last Wacky-Races-style. The handicapper has taken the view that with Diego Du Charmil getting up despite the last fence shenanigans, the bare form flatters Clondaw Castle. However, this race was probably the strongest big-handicap run so far this season given that Capeland won handsomely next time out with Diego Du Charmil in second despite now being rated 156; perhaps more importantly, Clondaw Castle was staying-on strongly over that 2m1f trip, and and extra three furlongs over the New Course at Cheltenham could be exactly what he needs. His fourth in the Arkle when sent off at 33/1 proves he handles the track, and Tom George’s horses are in fine form, so there are no clear negatives and he should be backed accordingly.

At the very bottom of the weights is NOT THAT FUISSE, the mount of Harry Skelton (who could have ridden Spiritofthegames, so that’s a positive in itself). On the face of it, his form isn’t up to much, but he was very deliberately steered round Warwick last time out over an insufficient trip, and given the trainer and the big prize on offer here, this absolutely screams “plot job”. Not That Fuisse’s jumping has been sound on all his three runs over fences, and he looks like a horse who will be rated far higher than 131 in future. With some nice each-way terms on offer, he should be covered, as he could be thrown in here.

Others with strong chances are Secret Investor for Paul Nicholls – who absolutely loves targeting this race, but his mark of 150 looks a little high – and Robin Des Foret for Willie Mullins, whose second behind Le Richebourg last October hinted at a proper graded horse in the making. But I can’t back four in the race!

Elsewhere on the card, while Mister Fisher has real class and shaped well behind Torpillo at Warwick, the odds available on the likeable GOOD BOY BOBBY look generous. He hasn’t put a foot wrong over fences, and has always looked like a step up in trip would suit. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ promising six-year-old really enjoyed the undulations of Carlisle, so Cheltenham may prove to his liking. The five-pound penalty he carries won’t make life easy, but that’s also why decent prices are available.

At Doncaster, the two handicap chases have attracted appalling numbers of entries, so aren’t of interest, but I have backed WINDSOR AVENUE to beat Sam Spinner, even if the near three-mile trip is an unknown. Windsor Avenue has looked sensational in his two outings over fences so far, while Sam Spinner has looked far from a natural over the bigger obstacles, and that should tip the contest in Brian Ellison’s favour. But at odds-on, he’s not exactly a tip, is he?

Good luck!

Recommended Bets (Cheltenham):

12:45 Good Boy Bobby 2pts win at 5/2 (general)

1:55 Clondaw Castle 1pt e/w at 15/2 (4 places) & Not That Fuisse 0.5pts e/w at 10/1 (4 places)

Newbury Saturday Handicaps Preview

The Newbury card is obviously headlined by the Ladbrokes Trophy, and I’ve already put up Mister Malarky as my main fancy for the big race earlier in the week. My other recommended bet in that preview was Yala Enki, but little of the forecast midweek rain actually arrived, and with the ground likely to be Good To Soft, his chances have perhaps receded – although let’s hope he pleasantly surprises us. But where one door closes, another opens, and the better ground does present a big opportunity for Alan King’s DINGO DOLLAR. Third last year off a higher mark on unfavoured soft ground, and still just seven years old, this race has always been the target, something that can’t be said for all the other runners towards the top of the weights. King has his horses bang in form, and I have to recommend a saver.

But in my view there is some value in another two races at Newbury:

1:15 Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase 2m6f

Four potentially excellent up-and-coming horses have managed to get into this 0-145 contest, and given how much better than the rest some of these may turn out to be, that’s where my attention will lie.

JERRYSBACK showed some impressive form as a novice over this sort of trip before being (slightly oddly) entered in the Cheltenham four-miler. If that pretty horrendous experience didn’t bottom him out he would have real claims here off a mark of 145, but he was mediocre first time out last season and may be seen to better effect later in the season, especially given his owner’s penchance for managing his horses’ marks.

ROCKY’S TREASURE’s novice form wasn’t quite as high-class, but his best run did come around Newbury in December when he got within four lengths of Santini, the eventual RSA runner-up. A run of that quality would bring him into considerations, but at eight years old and with 18 rules starts under his belt, he might not be as progressive as some of the others.

LARRY races here off a mark of just 142, and it would be surprising if that proved to be the peak of his progress as a chaser. Gary Moore has always rated him highly, and he was sent off at just 10/1 for the graded Sodexo Gold Cup just a month ago. That was a curious outing, with Jamie Moore never getting the six-year-old involved in the thick of the action, meaning this race may have been the plan all along; his shrewd trainer will have noted that Larry’s best RPR last season came at Newbury.

Having said that, this race also looks the perfect opportunity for HIGHWAY ONE O ONE. Regular readers of this blog – if indeed there are any – will know that I love this horse, but you can’t get too sentimental in this game and I passed over backing him at Cheltenham in his last run. That was for two reasons: firstly, he isn’t at his best on soft ground; secondly, that was an immensely hot race. Neither of those factors come into play here. In my mind, Newbury will suit this bold jumper, and this may be the race where Chris Gordon’s pride and joy finally fulfils his huge potential. Gordon is enjoying a good season, with his chasers +10.88 so far, so Highway One O One rates a strong selection.

2:25 Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Intermediate Hurdle

Put simply, if EPATANTE actually was suffering the ill-effects of her ‘flu jab in the Mares Novices’ at Cheltenham – a Grade 2 race for which she was sent off 15/8 favourite, let’s not forget – then she wins this race off a mark of just 137. If she’s simply not quite as good as Nicky Henderson thinks she is, then there are more than enough decent horses in this race to beat her. At the price I will happily pay to find out.

Recommended Bets (Newbury):

1:15 Highway One O One 1.5pts e/w 10/1 (5 places)

2:25 Epatante 2pts win 4/1

3:00 Dingo Dollar 0.5pts win 14/1
(Already Advised Mister Malarky win & Yala Enki e/w)

Ladbrokes Trophy 2019 Preview

For me, the Ladbrokes Trophy (ex Hennessey Gold Cup) is about as good as it gets in National Hunt racing. Newbury is a terrific track for this staying test: fair fences allowing quick jumping, the long run-in emphasising stamina, and the tight-ish bends requiring tactical speed. For that reason, it’s very unusual for the best handicapped horse not to win, or for there to be any hard luck stories. This decade the winners have been sent off at 12/1, 9/2, 7/2, 7/1, 8/1, 20/1 (trained by Nicky Henderson, so hardly a pin-sticking job), 4/1, 10/1 and 6/1. It is very much not a lottery and it pays to look closest at those towards the head of the market, particularly before extra place terms are being offered by the bookies on the day.

Nicky Henderson has two of the most fancied runners, which is unsurprising given his great record in this race. The current favourite is OK CORRAL, a very unexposed nine-year-old with just three chase starts to his name. Owner by JP McManus, it’s entirely possible he has been laid out for this and will hose up on Saturday, but there’s little real evidence to point us mere mortals out of the loop to that conclusion, and as such I can’t back him at the prices. Henderson’s other obvious chance is ON THE BLIND SIDE, and he makes more appeal having proven his rating of 149 is workable with a decent fourth place in a hot handicap chase at Ascot four weeks ago. The seven-year-old’s defeat of Talkischeap at Kempton in January reads particularly well, and his peak hurdles rating of 153 suggests he can progress from this mark. But all his good chase form is right-handed, and at short enough prices a leap of faith is required to back him to win this top class race.

Another trainer with an outstanding record here is Colin Tizzard, and his runners merit major respect given his two wins and two places in the last four renewals. In fact, of those at the head of the market, my pick is MISTER MALARKY, who looks to have been trained with this race in mind since his second place to Kildisart at Aintree in April. That is good form, and while he races off a 3lb higher mark here, Tizzard’s chaser can be progressive enough to defy the extra weight: he is just six-years-old and finished a good fourth in the RSA in March. Despite a poor at Ascot – “the handicapper can’t put him up for that,” joked Tizzard – the plan was always this race due to his superb run round the track in January and he wasn’t highly tried. Even with his price having shortened to single figures, he’s worth backing, especially with Jonjo O’Neill Jnr on board.

Tizzard also has the in-form WEST APPROACH entered, and he has claims, but it’s ELEGANT ESCAPE who is also of interest. Such a consistent warhorse, he was runner-up last year and then won the Welsh National in fine style before finishing a respectable 6^th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. His attitude no doubt means he will be involved again at the end, but with his lofty mark of 160 it would be an astonishing performance to actually win, having failed to land the prize last year off 155. There’s no each-way juice in the price, so he has to be passed over reluctantly.

Analysis of Elegant Escape’s excellent form means that a bet on YALA ENKI looks excellent value: their form tallies almost exactly, but Yala Enki can race off a mark of 155, just 1lb higher than last year when he finished third. The experienced nine-year-old was moved from Venetia Williams to Paul Nicholls over the summer, and while Venetia is an outstanding trainer in her own right, Nicholls has a mercurial ability to get an extra few pounds out of chasers in his charge. If he has managed to work his magic, that small improvement could make all the difference, and at 25/1 compared to 10/1 for Elegant Escape, the value is clear. Bryony Frost on board in a big staying chase is another plus.

Two others for the shortlist are DINGO DOLLAR, third last year and now off 2lbs lower, and THE CONDITIONAL, who beat West Approach at Cheltenham with plenty in hand and races off just a 6lb higher mark. But both horses’ chances will be affected by the ground on the day, and with no major reason for their prices to shorter dramatically, it is worth waiting. Besides, as much as I’d like to, I can’t back four horses!

Recommended Bets:

YALA ENKI – 1pt e/w at 25/1 (Various, 4 x ¼)

MISTER MALARKY – 1.5pt win at 9/1

Cheltenham Saturday Preview: BetVictor Gold Cup & Smartcard Handicap Chase

With relentless wet weather causing the Friday card at Cheltenham to be abandoned, conditions for Saturday’s races will be immensely testing – if indeed the rain relents for long enough for the meeting to go ahead.

Extreme ground conditions can lead to unexpected results, and so to my mind it’s worth looking through Saturday’s big handicap entries with an open mind to try to find some value.

13:50 Betvictor Smartcards Handicap Chase 27.5f (Old)

This extended trip really will turn into a slog, and while normally you’d want your horse to have a bit of speed to win on the Old Course, it may be about who is left standing turning for home.

On that basis, Ramses De Teillee merits maximum respect. He’s a dour stayer of high-class, as proven by his 2^nd in the Welsh National, and arrives match-fit following an impressive spin over hurdles at Cheltenham three weeks ago – also on pretty bottomless ground. But he’ll have to lump top weight round off a hefty mark of 153, and when you consider that his Welsh National 2^nd was off a mark of just 144, quotes of 5/1 don’t look appealing.

The other with obvious claims is West Approach, who also would have won in that bottomless Cheltenham ground three weeks ago had he not run into the almost comically well-handicapped The Conditional. But that was over a trip 2.5 furlongs shorter, and given that Colin Tizzard’s gelding didn’t quite get home, he may struggle to get the extra distance in potentially even deeper ground.

There are plenty of other classy horses entered, but most of them look sure to struggle in the mud, and that leaves a couple right down the bottom of the weights to consider.

Venetia Williams has entered the intriguing ACHILLE, who came into his own last season after previously racing only five times in three seasons. Finally fully fit and strong, the grey won three of his five starts last term, two of them on soft ground, with the trainer confirming after his win at Ffos Las that “he needs some cut in the ground” to be seen at his best. Williams has a terrific record running her chasers fresh at this time of year, so a lack of prep run wouldn’t be a concern; more of a worry is a lack of proven form at Cheltenham, or indeed over this extended trip, so stakes should be kept small.

At the bottom of the weights is POTTERS LEGEND for Lucy Wadham, already jocked up with Jack Quinlan on board as I type this on Thursday afternoon. This race would seem to have been the plan for a while given that Wadham gave her 9-year-old an easy spin round Cheltenham’s hurdle course three weeks ago, and no wonder given he has an excellent record at the track. Potters Legend really proved his stamina with a super staying-on victory over nearly 26 furlongs at Haycock in March 2018, but didn’t run last season, and of course that is a major factor in assessing his chances in this race. But at only 9 years old, he’s worth taking a small chance on.

Recommended Bets:

Achille – 0.5 pts e/w at 16/1 (365)
Potters Legend – 0.5 pts e/w at 14/1

2:25 BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase 20f (Old)

Normally it pays to look at the head of the market in this brutally competitive – and valuable – handicap, with single-figure priced winners the norm.

The two with the most respected claims are Slate House and Siruh Du Lac. Slate House sluiced through the mud over course and distance just three weeks ago, so has little to prove – but his mark of 147 is as yet untested in open company, which can sometimes be a harsh awakening. Siruh Du Lac has won four times on the spin, twice at Cheltenham, could still be progressive at just 6 years old, and had his form franked yet again by last season’s rival Janika winning the Haldon Gold Cup, but isn’t remotely proven on deep ground. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise were either to take home the £90k prize, but both horses are too short to back in the circumstances. Well done to those of you on at bigger prices.

However, it’s my view that the mud may prove to be a leveller, especially in light of so many of the more fancied runners stepping up in trip from two miles. That applies to Saint Calvados, Brelan d’As and Magic Saint, and as much as I rate all three horses – and absolutely adore the mighty Saint Calvados, who paid for my day at Prestbury Park three weeks ago – they have to be ruled out on the basis of non-proven stamina.

But there are two stepping down in trip whose chances look excellent.

SPRINGTOWN LAKE finished 5^th in the Close Brothers at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 141, but runs off just 137 in this race. He ran three times over three miles as a novice last season, suggesting that trainer Philip Hobbs feels stamina isn’t an issue, and Hobbs likes to target this meeting with second-season chasers he feels are under-marked by the handicapper. Richard Johnson will ensure the 7-year-old is prominent, and that’s something I view as a major positive on Cheltenham’s old course, where front-runners can accelerate away down the hill. Indeed, that’s how Baron Alco won last year’s renewal. Quotes of 14/1 are more than fair.

The other I like is COUNT MERIBEL, also only 7-years-old and a second-season chaser, and who also has proven form at Cheltenham, having won in fine style at this meeting last season. He runs off a mark of just 146, and that looks attractive given that Count Meribel managed to track Gold Cup favourite Lostintranslation until the final furlong in his most recent run at Carlisle. Nigel Twiston-Davies loves to target this meeting, and this race in particular, and heavy ground shouldn’t be a problem. Although Count Meribel hasn’t been missed in the market, he’s still worth backing with attractive each way terms on offer.

Recommended Bets

Springtown Lake 1pt e/w at 14/1 (5 places, Skybet)
Count Meribel 1pt e/w at 9/1 (5 places, various)

Bet365 Gold Cup Preview

The curtain closes on big Saturday handicaps in this UK jumps season with the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Park – so let’s see if we can find a winner to round off the year.

While it’s not quite as prestigious as in its former guise as the ‘Whitbread’, this 3m5f test is a terrific race. The winner needs: tactical speed, because Sandown can be tight when there are 20 runners, and it’s generally run on properly good ground; stamina, of course, because any horse that’s not a proper stayer will get found out over this extended trip with a stiff uphill finish; and proven jumping ability, because taking the infamous railway fences in the midst of a helter-skelter handicap isn’t for the faint-hearted.

What the winner doesn’t need is out-and-out class: since the mighty Desert Orchid won in 1988, 25 of the 30 winners have carried less than 11 stone. Looking at the last five years in more detail, in case the nature of the race has changed recently (like the Grand National), the picture is very similar. It’s easier to use horses’ official ratings rather than their weights to do this, and the picture is clear: horses rated 145 and under outperform the rest.

Weights

That means that the top five in the weights of Beware The Bear, Rock The Kasbah and Present Man can be overlooked for betting purposes. Of those, Rock The Kasbah & Present Man are hardest to ignore given they were second and third respectively in this race last year and both get to race off only three pounds higher this time around, but there should be more likely winners lurking lower in the weights.

In many of these big-money handicap chases, it’s a distinct advantage for trainers to have targeted the race, but perhaps not here. This is probably because the race is the final winning chance of the season; if you’re wrong as a trainer, or if your horse is unlucky in running, there’s no opportunity to put things right for six months. It’s clear from the statistics that it’s a positive to be match-fit, but not overcooked.

Season Runs

Having said that, all this year’s entries have had between three and seven runs this season, although with both West Approach and Flying Angel having already run seven times this term, they might not be at their absolute peak, and should be approached with caution. The latter is tricky to pass over given that he seems fairly well in at his peak, but we can’t have a bet on every horse in the race!

What about the career profile of horses who run well here? Last year’s winner Step Back was very much an outlier, being a novice with only three runs to his name. In fact, only 2 of the last 20 horses in total have had fewer than seven chase starts, meaning that novices and inexperienced chasers would need to be long prices in the betting to be worth following.

Chase Career Runs

Therefore while Talkischeap, Give Me A Copper and Just A Sting all have obvious claims, their short prices mean they don’t represent value in the market. Prime Venture is also probably too inexperienced – and won’t handle the quick ground.

That leaves a shortlist of Joe Farrell, Step Back, Rolling Dylan, Vyta Du Roc, The Young Master and Le Reve to look at in more detail in order to choose our selection(s). Rathlin Rose just shouldn’t be good enough to be getting involved here, even though Sandown is his favourite track.

Screen Shot 2019-04-27 at 09.51.43

The final four columns of the summary above show: horses’ peak career chase RPR and the difference between that and their current OR; and horses’ peak chase RPR this season, and the difference between that and their current OR.

The latter is used to identify horses hopelessly out of form, and Vyta Du Roc certainly fits that description, with his three runs this season PU, PU, 7^th. It would be a surprise if he ran well. Step Back is a much more complex case. The defending champion has been average at best this season, running below par in handicaps at Chepstow and Warwick, but he has consistently struggled in his career with going left-handed, and so perhaps those runs can be overlooked. Of more concern is whether he has recovered sufficiently from a bold front-running show in the Grand National, where he was only pulled up after the Canal Turn on the second circuit. He jumped wildly right round Aintree, and Sara Bradstock suspected he had a foot issue, something he has suffered before. If he were at long odds, he would certainly be worth a bet, because he was so magnificent last year, but there are too many negatives to take a short enough price.

Another who may have gone too far in the Grand National to have recovered for another marathon test is Joe Farrell, who was only pulled up two fences from home.

Given the non-runners, that leaves us with just three:

THE YOUNG MASTER – 25 career chase runs (and 46 runs in rules races!) would suggest that this 10-year-old is gone at the game. He started the season rated just 130, and presumably a couple of poor races away from retirement, but he won back-to-back handicaps at Chepstow and Cheltenham, and then ran a terrific race to be third in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He won this race in 2016 off a mark of 148, meaning that if he is anywhere close to his best, a mark of 142 is workable.

ROLLING DYLAN – As a progressive second season chaser, he has a lovely profile for this, and he’s been on my radar for a race of this type ever since an impressive staying-on third in a big Cheltenham handicap in December. His last run over 3m4f at Taunton was excellent off top weight, proving he’s in good nick. The ground should be fine, but the only concern is no proven Sandown form in the book, although he goes right-handed no problem.

LE REVE – You’d have got long odds on this 11-year-old being on the shortlist after an uninspiring 8^th place in the Veterans’ Final in January off a mark of 135, but since then Lucy Wadham has managed to reignite the spark in this gutsy horse. He’s won twice since then, at Lingfield and Sandown, and with Maxime Tissier taking off five pounds, it doesn’t matter that he’s slightly out of the main handicap. If he arrives on a going day, he should have a decent chance, given he was 3^rd in this race in 2015 off a lofty mark of 147.

Recommended Bets:

Rolling Dylan – 1pt e/w 20/1 (5 places)

Le Reve – 0.5pts e/w 20/1 (5 places)

The Young Master – 1pt win 9/1 BOG

Scottish Grand National 2019 Preview

In April, Grand Nationals come thick and fast. After Tiger Roll’s extraordinary victory at Aintree last Saturday, it’s the turn of Ayr to host its own Grand National this weekend. The Scottish version can’t quite match the prize money or prestige of its English equivalent, but it’s still an exceptionally competitive handicap in its own right, and one that trainers can target with superb stayers perhaps not quite up to the rigours of winning a modern Aintree National.

Ayr could barely be more different from Aintree: it’s a tight, undulating, one-and-a-half mile oval. That makes the profile of winners slightly unusual for a ‘National’: they obviously need to be proper stayers, because they need to finish the marathon four-mile trip strongly, but they also must have tactical speed in order to hold their position around the tight bends. As it’s a race that tends to take place on genuinely good ground, bearing this ‘speed’ angle in mind is important – and can potentially lead to finding some value.

Beware The Bear will be bearing top weight, running off his newly lofty mark of 160 after winning the Ultima at Cheltenham. He’s undoubtedly a very good horse, but as a nine-year-old it seems likely that he’s reached the ceiling of his improvement, and to win such a competitive race of such a high mark, he’d have to be a graded horse in waiting, similar to Frodon or Aso for example. I’m not convinced that’s the case.

The Ultima is a significant form line for this race. In second place was major Aintree Grand National fancy Vintage Clouds, who fell at the first in Liverpool. Given he was such a short price for the superior race, he should have every chance at Ayr, especially when his third in last year’s Scottish Grand National is taken into account. But it’s not quite that simple: that third place was achieved off a mark of 141, and while he was able to run off 144 at Aintree, he now has to run off his ‘true’ rating of 149 at Ayr. Although he only shoulders 11-1, that means he’s no shoo-in for this contest. But his profile contains the key requirements of proven staying form combined with a speedier edge, as well as that bonus of proven course form. He is the standard against which other runners have to be judged.

Also in the Ultima were Big River (4^th) and Sizing Codelco (PU). The latter is now 10-years-old, was only 8^th in this race last year off 150 (with Paul O’Brien taking off five pounds), and runs off 152 this time with no form in the book. He seems to have little chance, whereas the former is of significant interest based on that Ultima run, where he stayed on strongly up the hill and gave the impression he wanted a longer trip to be seen to full effect. However, the five best RPRs of his career have all come on heavy or soft ground, and with good ground in prospect at Ayr, he looks to have been overbet.

Dingo Dollar does enjoy good ground. Alan King’s horse is just seven, so likely to still be progressing, and was a good second at Ayr last April in the three-mile novice chase. He has since been third in the Ladbroke Trophy off 148, then ran a poor race in a Doncaster handicap, but showed his health with a second place back at Doncaster in March. That recent average form means he runs off 147, which looks more than workable. He should be a major player if he is on his peak form, although the trip is unknown.

Crosshue Boy was the horse to beat Dingo Dollar at Ayr last April, but he had 17lbs in hand that day to get up by a length; he only has five pounds to play with this time. He’s been targeted at this race all season, something confirmed by his trainer Sean Doyle, but even so, the relative prices of the two contenders seem lopsided, with Dingo Dollar having proven his quality more than once versus a horse who’s quality has to be taken on trust.

Crosspark has certainly proved his credentials with a gutsy win over four miles at Newcastle in the Eider Chase. He was previously third in a good handicap at Warwick, but both those performances came off a rating of 135, and he will now run off 142. As a nine-year-old, is it fair to assume he’s still progressive to such a degree that this competitive handicap remains within his grasp? The aforementioned “good handicap at Warwick” was won in January by Impulsive Star off 133, and he now runs off 139, so similar concerns apply to Sam Waley-Cohen’s mount, especially after a brutal run in the Cheltenham four-miler. Fourth in that Warwick race was Carole’s Destrier, who won at Newbury in March and in so doing also went up the handicap from a generous-looking 137 to a tough mark of 143.

The strongly-supported Cloth Cap fell at Ayr last April – not a good sign – and has been winning class 3 and class 4 handicaps this term for Jonjo O’Neill, going up 13lbs in the process. His short price is speculative. Another younger and progressive runner is Geronimo, who would be running from two pounds out of the handicap, but Rachael McDonald will claim five pounds to negate that disadvantage. He’s risen 22lbs in the handicap this season from just four runs, and hasn’t competed in a big race such as this before. With so many other classier and proven contenders to choose from, he can also be passed over as poor value.

Blue Flight is another progressive novice in the line-up, and arrives at Ayr in top form with three wins and a second this calendar year. The best of those performances was victory over Black Corton on almost level terms at Kelso, but he’s up 16lbs in the handicap since then, putting him near the top of the weights. There are also doubts about a six-year-old being pitched into his first major race against more seasoned rivals. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ other fancied runner is the veteran Cogry, pulled up in last year’s renewal. On his day, Cogry is a doughty and tough competitor, but this mark of 140 seems too high to win from. Twiston-Davies also saddles Arthur’s Gift, who has a lot to do off 137.

Red Infantry was sent off 14/1 for the valuable Grand National trial at Haydock when rated 142, and runs at Ayr off 140. The form of that race hasn’t worked out too well since, but his second in the London National at Sandown over 3m5f showed that he should stay the 4m trip. Market support for Ian Williams’ runner would be intriguing, but on pure form he can be passed over.

Chidswell gave a nine-length beating to Dingo Dollar at Doncaster, and demands respect as a result, but he’s up 7lbs for that win, which should remove him from considerations. The other contender who merits a closer look is the staying-chase veteran Mysteree, beaten only a neck by Crosspark in the Eider. At 11-years-old, however, it would have to be a weaker renewal than this for him to win.

Skipthecuddles looks to have a colossal mark based on very little, and would have to improve significantly to get involved, while Kingswell Theatre, Brian Boranha and Takingrisks can’t be backed with any confidence based on their form. Other runners will race from out of the handicap, and none have overwhelmingly obvious claims that overturn this disadvantage. Chic Name did beat the 2018 Scottish Grand National winner Joe Farrell at Newbury recently, but he will carry an entire stone more at Ayr, and that will make a repeat victory unlikely.

Recommended Bet

Truthfully, this isn’t a vintage renewal of the Scottish Grand National. There are several dark horses in the race who boast progressive form as novices, and of course one may very well have several pounds in hand, but none are obviously well-in based on what they’ve produced on the track. Contenders with proven form in the book are all higher than their habitual winning marks, and that may mean that the classy VINTAGE CLOUDS is still comparably well-handicapped despite having to run off his true rating. Beware The Bear’s burden allows Sue Smith’s horse to shoulder just 11-1, and as he’s just five points shorter to win at Ayr than he was at Aintree, there is still juice in his price.

Vintage Clouds 2pts e/w at 9/1 (6 places only – SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Hills)

Ante-Post Angle: JLT Novice Chase

The JLT Chase is undoubtedly one of the trickier races at the Festival for ante-post betting, given that so many of the horses in the picture also have entries for the Arkle, RSA or handicap chases. But this year, this lack of clarity presents an opportunity. A quick look at the odds makes it relatively obvious: most of the current markets leaders aren’t even going to be in the race, so there must be value at bigger prices.

Topofthegame – RSA Chase (for which he has every chance)

La Bague Au Roi – will skip Cheltenham altogether

Le Richebourg – Arkle (already backed in this series)

Kalashnikov – Arkle (although he would have a great chance in the JLT)

Delta Work – RSA (with a huge shout as clearly the best of Irish)

Vinndication – RSA or may skip Cheltenham altogether. Anyhow, he wouldn’t have anywhere near the pace for the JLT.

That leaves Defi du Seuil (9/2 or 3/1 NRNB) and Lostintranslation (5/1 or 9/2 NRNB) as the clear favourites, with the next priced horses who are actually going to line up in March available at 16/1 and bigger. If you can’t spot the potential value in that scenario, you shouldn’t be reading an ante-post betting blog!

The challenge, of course, is to figure out which of those big prices does represent value, if indeed any do – because if Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation are nailed on to finish 1-2, then we’re wasting our time. Happily, my view is that both horses’ chances have been exaggerated, and there’s no way they can be 12+ points clear of all of their rivals. The two horses have intertwined form: on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, Lostintranslation stayed on up the hill to narrowly beat his rival; then in the Scilly Isles at Sandown, Defi du Seuil got his revenge by showing a lovely turn of tactical speed at the key moment. The margins of victory almost cancel each other out, and the horses’ form lines via the other British novices La Bague Au Roi and Topofthegame just confirm how closely matched they are.

As such, their form and class can be examined as a pair – and the argument that they are clearly superior to all their rivals really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Most obviously, they are rated 150 and 151 by the handicapper after four runs each on a variety of courses. This only just makes them the highest rated horses in the race, and these ratings aren’t obviously superior: without further improvement, that level of performance wouldn’t have won the JLT in 2015, 2016 or 2017, and maybe not last year’s running where the front two were rated 151 (Shattered Love with her allowance). In fact, only one of the eight runnings of the JLT has been won by the highest-rated horse going into the race, because it’s a novice race for improving horses. If a horse is exposed already, it needs to be blatantly high-class to justify such skinny prices. Both these animals are clearly good chasers, but 12 points better than any rival? There’s no firm evidence for it.

So what about the rest of the horses who are entered? Which horse can outrun its odds?

EACH-WAY CONTENDERS

Champagne Classic (16/1) – Chase OR N/A (RPR 153), Hurdles OR 150, 1 chase run (3^rd G3)

Famously described by Michael O’Leary as his “worst horse” when he won the 2017 Martin Pipe Hurdle, that 100% record at the Festival immediately makes him of interest. He followed up that victory with an impressive win in the Grade One novice hurdle at Punchestown, beating Penhill into second, so he has the class for this level of racing. He was then off the track for 641 days until his chasing debut in January, where on the face of it his 12-length third behind Ballyward over 3 miles at Naas was uninspiring. But there was a fair amount to like about that run: he jumped slickly in the main and travelled very well for 2.5 miles, and it was no surprise he didn’t finish his race off after so long off the track. The problem is that he is entered for Gigginstown – never the easiest owners’ intentions to read – in the RSA and 4-miler as well. Discorama looked awkward and fell in the same Naas race, and can’t be considered without more form in the book.

Real Steel (20/1) – OR N/A (RPR 147), Hurdles OR 140, 2 chase runs (F,1)

As possibly Willie Mullins’ main chance in this race, by default this unheralded 6-year-old merits further consideration. He was a mediocre hurdler, with only one victory over timber to his name, and could only trail into 11^th in last year’s Albert Bartlett. That in itself is a concern, not for his finishing position, but more for the fact he was entered in that 3-mile slog rather than a shorter trip. A further concern is that he fell on chasing debut at Leopardstown before winning last time out at Fairyhouse, prompting Paul Townend to comment that “he’s won two races going right handed, whether that makes a difference to him or not”. While The JLT is probably his target – Mullins, a creature of habit, sent Kemboy to the same Fairyhouse chase before running him in the JLT last year – there are too many negatives to be interested at this point, and his trainer ensures he’s exposed in the market. Voix du Reve is Mullins’ other possible major player here, but he seems far more likely to go the Arkle. Other Mullins runners could include Robin Des Foret – only entered for the JLT, extraordinarily, although already 9 – and mare Camelia De Cotte, but playing Mullins Bingo isn’t an attractive ante-post proposition.

Winter Escape (20/1) – OR 150 (top RPR 157), Hurdles OR 141, 6 runs (3,2,1,1 G3, 1 G3, 5 G1)

After a long break, Winter Escape went chasing for Aiden Howard in two low-key races over the Summer at Galway, before two impressive wins in Grade 3s brought him wider acclaim. This saw him go off in the Flogas Novice Chase just 9/2, but in the end he was well beaten into fifth by La Bague Au Roi and others. Hardline, who finished third that day, looked a real stayer and was outpaced at the critical times, meaning he would be far more suited to taking up his entries in the RSA or National Hunt Chase. Winter Escape did break blood vessels in that run, but it may be that his impressive RPR figures up to that point were inflated. When pushed, he just didn’t look good enough, and with six chase runs at eight-years-old there may not be too much more improvement to come.

Paloma Blue (20/1, 25/1 Unibet) – OR 146 (RPR 144), Hurdles OR 149, 2 runs (4,1)

Henry de Bromhead’s fascinating seven-year-old would be the classiest hurdler to line up in the JLT, so can’t be discounted, but on all available evidence at the time of writing he jumps like an equine washing machine.

Kildisart (20/1) – OR 147 (RPR 154), Hurdles OR 142, 3 runs (2,1 C2,1 C2)

In such a weak renewal, handicappers who have proved they are ahead of their official mark should not be discounted. The fact that Kildisart did this over JLT course and distance, in some style, makes him an even more interesting contender. Given that he beat two very reliable yardsticks, Highway One O One and Spiritofthegames, into second and third that day, his form is rock-solid. That means a further improvement on the day of 5-6 pounds could be enough to see him win the JLT, and his trainer Ben Pauling’s comments that “I’m hopeful there’s more to come…he’s a work in progress” offer encouragement of that possibility in March. Having been raised above the level where he could take part in Pauling’s previous first choice race, the novice handicap, he is almost certain to take his place in the JLT, so no NRNB concession is required. That makes quotes of 20/1 generous given the paucity of his likely opposition, and a small wager should be chanced that he is progressive enough to get himself into the frame in March.

Drovers Lane (25/1) – OR 150 (RPR 154), Hurdles OR 131, 4 runs (1,7,1,1 C2)

On the face of Drovers Lane’s ratings, it’s absolutely baffling that he is five times the price of Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation, who have similar marks. However, he was only rated an ordinary 131 over hurdles, and his two chase wins in November and December – rated so highly at the time – are looking more questionable with the benefit of hindsight. Le Breuil, beaten at Cheltenham, followed up that second place with a 14-length 4^th in a Grade 2 at Haydock, way behind Jerrysback and the winner Castafiore, and that casts major doubts over the whole form line. In addition, Drovers Lane’s jumping during his Cheltenham win was far from foot-perfect. At this stage, without any runs since, there are too many question marks to back Rebecca Curtis to land the JLT.

LIVE OUTSIDERS

Mr Whipped (33/1) – OR 145 (RPR 152), Hurdles OR 145, 2 runs (3 C2, 1 C2)

Nicky Henderson’s young hopeful was involved in a terrific four-way tussle at Cheltenham in November, but after belting the last couldn’t challenge Count Meribel and Le Breuil. He since won a good race at Haydock, but had to be given five pounds to beat Springtown Lake by just two lengths. Put simply, this form looked good at the time but is now highly questionable, and he just doesn’t seem good enough – but he is one of the entries with the biggest potential for major improvement – and his target for March is also unclear.

Pravalaguna (40/1) – OR N/R (RPR 144), Hurdles OR 138, 3 runs (4,1 Mares,1 Mares)

This Willie Mullins mare wasn’t discussed in the Mullins section above, because she’s a little different from his other entries: she has only raced this season against her own sex, winning both times. Given her allowance in the JLT, and her RPR, she would have a chance of following up Shattered Love’s win last year to make it two in a row for mares. However, she is also entered for the Arkle, won over 2 miles last time out, wasn’t a star hurdler, and as such her NRNB quotes of just 20/1 are far too skinny.

Castafiore (50/1, 40/1 NRNB) – OR 139 [+7] (RPR 148), Hurdles OR 128, 3 runs (4,1,1 G2)

Another mare, she sprung a huge surprise when landing an open Grade Two at Haydock in January at odds of 28/1. It’s not hard to see why she was so long in the betting for that contest: she was only one win from two in weak Class 3 chases going into it, and it would be too kind to call her hurdling record mediocre. But she did win, and in some style too, trouncing Jerrysback (by 5 lengths), Crucial Role (14) and Le Breuil (14.5), and that can’t simply be explained away as a freak result. Her previous win at Wincanton didn’t look much at the time, but the second placed mare Little Miss Poet since won a decent race handily at Ludlow. It’s certainly true that Jerrysback didn’t take to the Haydock fences – many horses don’t – but she didn’t just beat him, she beat four well-regarded geldings. At this stage of the season, it is still possible that this was indeed a freak bit of form, but the fact remains that she won a Grade Two Novice Chase over 2.5 miles in a year where the JLT field looks weak. An improvement of 5-6 pounds on that run – as it was rated on RPR – plus her mares allowance would put her right in the picture in March. With quotes of 40/1 NRNB available, she must surely be a minor each-way play, with very little risk attached.

RECOMMENDED BETS (13/1/19)

Kildisart – 1pt win at 20/1 (Hills, Betfair, Coral)

Castafiore – 0.5pts e/w at 40/1 NRNB (Bet 365, 3×1/4 or Paddy Power, 3×1/5)

Ante-Post Angle: Championship Hurdles

Having identified some possible value in the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase last week, now the spotlight falls onto Cheltenham’s championship hurdle races. With the entries due to be released later this week, it’s the right time to take a market check to identify any juicy prices before they disappear with increased attention. All three divisions will take some serious unravelling, with knotted form-lines and a tangled series of comments on market principals’ targets, so settle down for a long read…

Stayers Hurdle

The Stayers Hurdle is possibly the most complex puzzle to solve, as almost every contender has at least one key question mark against them, and as such they don’t make attractive betting propositions at this stage. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons why:

Penhill 7/1 (5/1 NRNB) – In a division without a superstar, or even a notable in-form horse, last season’s winner is deservedly the market favourite. He’s still only eight years old, and Willie Mullins says he’s “ahead of where he was [this time] last year” in his preparations. But those preparations have to be taken entirely on trust, because the first time we will see Penhill this season will be in the Stayers Hurdle itself, as per the method used last season. Mullins is undoubtedly a genius, but with his string running below-par in general at the moment, this year that lack of racecourse fitness is enough of a concern to make me want to wait until nearer March for a wager.

Apples Jade 10/1 (9/2 NRNB) – The super-talented mare is the joker in the pack, hence the large difference in NRNB prices. Despite the fact she’d probably go off favourite for this race, everyone connected with Gigginstown repeats the same mantra with her again and again, that she’s headed to the race where she has “the biggest chance of winning”, the Mares Hurdle. As such her chances will be discussed in that section.

Supasundae 10/1 (6/1 NRNB) – Now nine years old, which is a big negative: only 6/45 winners of this race have been nine or older, and five of those were returning winners. He’s a classy horse, but he’s had his chances to win this, and three miles at Cheltenham isn’t his best discipline anyway.

Faugheen 12/1 (8/1 NRNB) – At his peak, he would be the best horse in this race by a significant margin, but he’s now 11 and suffered a nasty fall last time out. If he can reproduce the form he showed at Punchestown in April, when the fires burned brightly once again, he will demolish this ordinary field. That’s a big ‘if’, hence the quotes of 8/1, but every true racing fan wishes the legend well.

At this point in the market, things start to get a little bit more interesting, as we reach some younger horses who could still be improving. Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park (12/1, 10/1 NRNB) is unbeaten this season, and according to the official handicapper has progressed 16 pounds in the course of registering those three wins. But in my view both of his graded wins are questionable. At Haydock he couldn’t keep up with the pace, and then stayed on from another postcode to get up at the line by half a length; he won’t get that chance in a better field. Then at Ascot he was all-out to beat 40/1 shot West Approach by two lengths in the Long Walk. Sue Smith’s six-year-old Midnight Shadow is certainly progressive, and got the better of perennial bridesmaid Wholestone at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but he’s never gone further than 2.5 miles. Given that only 8 of the last 42 to win or place in this race hadn’t won over three miles, he can be looked over.

The value in a weak renewal could lie with horses switched back to hurdling after disappointing as novice chasers. Black Op (16/1, 12/1 NRNB) didn’t take to the bigger obstacles at all, but did show off his big engine on both his chase starts; however, he is another that’s never actually proved his stamina, having generally raced at around 2.5 miles. For that reason, he’s not yet a betting proposition.

We can be certain that Colin Tizzard’s KILBRICKEN STORM does not have an issue with stamina, with three wins at three miles on his CV, the best of those his success in the 2018 Albert Bartlett over the Stayers’ Hurdle course and distance. That race has been largely written off because it was run on heavy* ground, but the form is actually working out well: second-placed Ok Corral is now clear favourite for the National Hunt Chase in March, while third placed Santini is very near the top of the market for the RSA Chase. Kilbricken Storm then followed up by finishing only half a length behind the winner Next Destination in the Punchestown Grade One in April, proving his Cheltenham win wasn’t a fluke. Sent chasing this season, he looked very uncomfortable on both his starts, but he had good technique over hurdles, so that shouldn’t be a concern. A more legitimate worry is his lack of speed, given that 15 of the last 17 winners had won a Graded hurdle race over 2m5f or shorter, showing you can’t just be a dour stayer to win the Stayers Hurdle. However in my view Kilbricken Storm’s unbeaten Cheltenham new course record (2/2) is enough of a positive to outweigh this, and with 25/1 available NRNB, a small chance can be taken on Tizzard’s horse to out-run his odds.

Another to note is Aux Ptits Soins, back to somewhere near his best at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day when comfortably winning a three mile handicap hurdle off 141, after missing nearly two years with injury. His ‘best’ includes a win in the Coral Cup and a very respectable fifth in the 2016 World Hurdle (as it was called then), so like any Cheltenham specialist he should be given the utmost respect in March. Given the difference in best prices at the moment, Kilbricken Storm is preferred as a speculative NRNB selection, but if Dan Skelton’s classy charge turns up fit and well on the day, he will be of major interest.

*officially “soft” ground, despite it being clearly bottomless to any onlookers, presumably in a misguided attempt to protect the reputation of the Clerk?

Mares Hurdle

It would be tempting to view this race as a straightforward betting proposition – the short-priced favourite has won seven out of eleven renewals – but that is a misleading statistic given that the mighty mare Quevega was responsible for six of those wins. In fact, since Quevega’s retirement, the favourite has been beaten in three of the four years, including the infamous fall of Annie Power at 1/2 on.

2019’s odds-on favourite is likely to be Apples Jade…if she runs here. Given the level of her form this season, winning three Graded races against the boys by a scarcely believable aggregate of 57 lengths, it beggars belief that she won’t be allowed to take her chance in a weak-looking Stayers Hurdle instead. But at the moment it does seem she will head here to take on her own sex, a decision perhaps taken due to her past inconsistent performances in Spring, usually attributed to being in season. Last year she won the same three races at Navan, Fairyhouse and Leopardstown before disappointing at the festival; at a best price of Evens it would be wiser to wait for the level of her opposition to be confirmed before taking a chance.

That opposition could prove to be anywhere between formidable and facile. 2018 winner Benie des Dieux, Champion Hurdle fancy Laurina, and 2017 favourite Limini could all race here…or not. Benie des Dieux is by far the most likely runner for Wille Mullins, and having vanquished Apples Jade last year, would need to be respected. Indeed, NRNB quotes of 11/4 are relatively tempting, given there’s no chance she would go off a longer price (unless Laurina did end up here). But her price is also unlikely to shorten too much prior to her being seen on a racecourse, so tying up money in January makes little sense.

Given the lack of clarity around mares’ March targets, the no-runner no-bet concession is vital, and the only standout price offered by Skybet is on Pearl Of The West. This likeable five year old has all-important course and distance form having won at Cheltenham in October. After that visually impressive staying-on win, her trainer John McConnell said that he “would take a look at the Mares’ [Hurdle] and see next March”. She is an intriguing proposition, because she’s likely to be progressive and is still unexposed, but counting against her is her lack of runs at a trip longer than two miles. After all, 30 out of 33 horses placed in the 11 renewals have won at 2.5 miles or longer: you have to stay up the hill.

As such, it looks better to play a waiting game in this trappy market.

Champion Hurdle

Until Boxing Day, there was nothing to discuss: Buveur d’Air was inevitably going to be crowned Champion Hurdler for a third successive year, given that he looked better than ever and there was apparently no competition. But that all changed with his shock defeat to the mare Verdana Blue at Kempton, a result that has breathed some much-needed life into the Champion Hurdle market.

Buveur d’Air lost at Kempton because he made a major hurdling error – perhaps the first of his career – and lost momentum and ground at the vital stage. Nothing in the way the race was run indicated that the mistake was due to being pressurised by another horse, and basically he was mugged by a speedier horse on the line given a superb ride by Nico de Boinville. Having managed to win the Champion Hurdle last year despite having never “being at his best” according to his trainer, Buveur remains a rock-solid favourite, and my reading of that Kempton result is that it’s simply put some juice in his price, moving him out to 6/4 NRNB from odds-on. He went off 4/6 on in 2018, but that was against a weaker field, so a best guess of his price on the day is close to Evens. As such, there’s no need to tie money up for two months.

The likelihood of a stronger field this year is due to the presence of two mares near the head of the market: the aforementioned Verdana Blue, and the wildcard Laurina. Willie Mullins – a pretty good judge of equine talent – seems infatuated with her, ranking her as highly as any mare he’s trained. Ruby Walsh also rates her, having all but confirmed he will choose her in the Champion Hurdle ahead of last season’s close second Melon or recent Grade One winner Sharjah. But as mere punters, we are going on trust: there isn’t any substantial form in the book. Yes, she won the 2018 Mares Novices Hurdle on the bridle, keeping pace with talented Maria’s Benefit and then leaving the rest of the field for dead, and followed up with a win in the Fairyhouse Grade One equivalent – but that’s not high-class form in the book. She will need to find nearly a stone of improvement on the day to win, and as such NRNB quotes of 7/2 are the worst value you’ll find for any race in March.

Verdana Blue rates a much more enticing bet at 10/1 NRNB, because she does have some form in the book, and not just the Kempton win. Her early-season defeat of the reliable Old Guard is rock-solid; her 4^th in the Greatwood Handicap over Champion Hurdle course and distance was a decent effort considering she was crowded out, and she stayed on well up the hill. The concern is over ground. Her trainer has insisted throughout that she needs “genuinely good” ground, and there is no chance of that on Tuesday 12^th March: it will either be good-to-soft, or softer. Her connections previously agreed with Nicky Henderson, saying at one point they’d swerve the Champion Hurdle entirely, but seem to have come to their senses: after all, her win over Buveur d’Air was on officialy good-to-soft ground, and she recorded her best two RPRs of last season on a similar surface. It’s likely that on a track which puts more of an emphasis on stamina than Kempton that she’ll come unstuck, but at 10/1 the only thing stopping a bet is the small possibility of soft ground on the day. Otherwise she seems to have been curiously underrated and could be good value on the day.

The other leading contenders simply aren’t convincing, especially given they’re up against a proven high-class champion. Melon couldn’t beat a below-par Buveur d’Air last year, and though Willie Mullins insists he’ll “only have to improve a head” to win, that’s wishful thinking. Sharjah does look to have progressed significantly this season, with handy wins in two Group Ones and the massively valuable Galway Handicap off 146. But he could only finish a poor 8^th in the Supreme Novices last season and was beaten by a below-par Samcro in November. It doesn’t add up to Champion Hurdle form.

At slightly bigger prices are the other two to consider. Brain Power was sent chasing by Nicky Henderson and basically wasted last season as a result; thankfully his owner Michael Buckley finally insisted his horse was sent back over hurdles in December, and he won a Grade Two at Cheltenham on his return to the smaller obstacles. That form isn’t bad: on a line through the second-placed Silver Streak he’s not far off the required standard, but held by Verdana Blue. More troubling is that he was only 8^th in the 2017 Champion Hurdle and has never run well on Cheltenham’s old course. Espoir d’Allen exploded onto the Champion Hurdle scene with an easy eight length beating of Stormy Ireland in a Limerick Grade Three. He has handy juvenile form last season, but that isn’t adding up to much in open company; none of last season’s juveniles have really made a name for themselves this term.

With questions to answer for all his competitors, Buveur d’Air remains the best value at this stage at 6/4 NRNB – if you think his price will shorten significantly between now and March and can tie up the money. But waiting seems the wiser choice. After all, a lot can happen in two months, and at short prices, there can’t be any doubts.

Advised Bets (15/1/19)

Kilbricken Storm – Stayers Hurdle – 0.5pt e/w 25/1 NRNB (Paddy Power)

Ante-Post Angle: Championship Chases

Entries for the championship chases at Cheltenham have been made, and this welcome festival milestone provides a perfect excuse for an in-depth look at the current ante-post markets, and a quest for that most elusive beast: good value. Happily, in two of the three races it looks like there is a real outlier in the market, so maybe there is some value after all…read on to find out where.

Gold Cup

To this observer there is no doubting which horse represents the best value in the current Gold Cup market: step forward BRISTOL DE MAI. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable star is the joint-highest rated horse out of the 43 entries made, and a two-time Grade One winner. He is also still only eight years old, right in the middle of the perfect age range for winners given that 26 of the last 29 Gold Cups have been won by seven, eight or nine year olds. He should therefore be an obvious leading contender.

But the narrative around this horse is that he ‘only performs at Haydock’ and ‘loves the mud’, and as a result he is available at long prices for March’s showpiece. It is certainly true to say that Bristol de Mai loves Haydock: both of his Grade One wins have come there, and he has recorded four of his five highest career RPRs at the Lancashire track. But his apparent hatred of Cheltenham in comparison has been exaggerated. He has only run at Prestbury Park three times: in January 2018 he was too bad to be true in the Cotswold Chase and had wind surgery two days later; in 2017 he was only 7^th in the Gold Cup, but 2016-17 was a poor season all-round for a horse still adjusting to being in open company; while at the 2016 festival he ran an excellent race in the JLT Novices Chase, finishing second and posting his highest RPR of the season in the process. And as far as being soft-ground dependent goes, that is simply nonsense. His win in this season’s Grade One Betfair Chase was achieved on good ground, and his 2016 JLT 2^nd was too. In fact, as far as ante-post betting is concerned, his ability to act on any ground is a big positive.

The remaining question mark is his dreadful – and short-lived – run in the King George, when he never settled and fell at the ninth fence. The horse was badly bumped by Thistlecrack at the first fence, which seemed to spook him, and his trainer used this excuse afterwards. This is a slight concern given the hustle and bustle of an open Gold Cup, but it’s not something that’s happened to the horse before, and perhaps it would be wisest simply to draw a line through the King George entirely. It’s certainly easier than trying to explain a race where every single horse surprised onlookers in one way or another.

Given all of that, quotes of 33/1 NRNB with Paddy Power seem extraordinary. The price presumes as fact that Bristol de Mai won’t act at Cheltenham, and that’s been shown to not necessarily be the case. So given it’s no runner no bet and there’s no risk attached, there’s only one question still to answer: could this horse win a Gold Cup if he does show his ability in March around the undulations of Cheltenham’s new course?

My answer, if he does act on the course, is a resounding yes. There are issues with all the other leading players in the market:

Presenting Percy – a worthy favourite, but yet to be seen on a racecourse this season. His previous build-up for Cheltenham wins took in six and five races in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Whilst true that his trainer favours unorthodox preparation for the festival, this unorthodoxy has always previously involved the horse actually running!

Native River – respected of course as champion, but that brutal race last year may mean he is past his absolute peak; also, only the very best horses win two Gold Cups, and he certainly isn’t an all-time great in terms of ability.

Kemboy – not yet shown that he can stay the extra two furlongs up the hill and only fourth in last season’s JLT.

Clan des Obeaux – well-beaten by Bristol de Mai at Haydock; form of his King George win highly questionable.

Thistlecrack – 11 years old and surely not a fluent enough jumper to win the big prize.

Road To Respect – Respected for his fourth in unsuitable conditions last year, but only a distant third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, and that’s a concern.

Al Boum Photo – only completed four of his seven chase starts, and fell at Cheltenham last year. There’s also no guarantee he will stay.

Bellshill – every chance if fully fit by March, but he has work to do on that front.

Might Bite – potentially ‘gone at the game’ after 2018’s epic battle with Native River.

Sizing John – has yet to show he has retained his ability and is fully-fit.

Elegant Escape – a wonderful horse, but in my mind too slow to win a good ground Gold Cup run at a strong pace.

Many of these horses could win the Gold Cup – and one of them is very likely to – but the question is the value of a 33/1 bet, not 3/1. With so many doubts about his rivals, Bristol de Mai looks a very generous price.

Ryanair Chase

The main factor when considering ante-post betting in the Ryanair Chase is which horses will actually end up taking part rather than pursuing alternative targets. Of those almost certain to end up in the Ryanair if fit and well – taking trainer comments into account as well as the most logical targets – Min, Waiting Patiently and Monalee would all have major claims, while Paul Nicholls’ duo of Politilogue and Frodon would have to be respected.

All of these horses have every chance in March, but are accordingly short in the market and represent little, if any, value two months before the action starts. Yet further down the list of highly-likely runners, there is one which may have been underestimated, Venetia Williams’ ASO. On the face of it, this horse isn’t up to winning an open Grade One, having competed largely in big-field handicaps since 2016, but a closer look leads to a different conclusion.

His win over (almost precisely) Ryanair course and distance on New Year’s Day was more comfortable than the two-length margin of victory suggests; his jockey Charlie Deutsch made absolutely sure of the win, rather than testing the horse to his limits. This victory was achieved from an already lofty official mark of 158, meaning Aso is now rated 163 by the handicapper. Any further improvement would put him right in the mix for a Ryanair champion in a year without a clearly exceptional favourite; last year’s winner Balko des Flos was rated 166, and 2015 winner Uxizandre a lowly 161 before the race.

And despite being nine-years-old, there is a strong case that Aso is still progressive. He was off the track injured for 397 days between October 2017 and his comeback in November 2018. In his pre-injury career he competed in eight open chases and posted an average RPR of just 151; post comeback he has been awarded RPRs of 163 at Newbury and then a career-best 166 at Cheltenham. Evidence suggests he has not yet reached the ceiling of his natural ability.

Aso’s record at Cheltenham also bears closer scrutiny. He’s raced at the Festival three times, and could only finish 11^th in the 2015 County Hurdle and 5^th in the 2016 Arkle on his first two attempts, but those were at odds of 33/1 and 66/1 respectively, so he handled the track with no issues. But it is Aso’s third visit to the festival that is of such interest, because in 2017 – as a weaker horse, remember – he managed to finish third in the Ryanair Chase at odds of 40/1. In fact, his overall course and distance record is excellent: 2^nd/8^th (lost a shoe)/3^rd (Ryanair)/1^st.

Given the importance of Cheltenham and festival form – 53% of all the festival races in the last 12 years have been won by horses with proven Cheltenham form (from a much smaller pool of entries) – Aso has every chance of posting another impressive showing. The only remaining potential negative is his target, but Venetia Williams confirmed after his New Year’s Day victory that the Ryanair would now be his main aim. Unfortunately the 33/1 I managed to get (see Twitter!) went before I could post this, but at a best price of boosted 25/1, a small each-way bet is still advised against a field without a definite superstar.

Champion Chase

Altior dominates the market, and rightfully so. He has won against all his rivals in all conditions, is seemingly tactically invincible with his high cruising speed and deadly finishing kick, and has proven he’s not ground-dependent by winning on all types of ground. For an each-way bet to be value, the ‘win’ part must represent as fair a price as the ‘place’ part, and given just how likely Altior is to win this race – quotes of 1/2 are perfectly reasonable – then there is no ante-post value to be found. Instead, simply watch this magnificent horse add to his victory tally!

Advised Bets (10/01/19)

Bristol de Mai – Gold Cup – 1pt e/w 33/1 NRNB (Paddy Power)

Aso – Ryanair Chase – 0.5pts e/w 25/1 (Ladbrokes & Hills – both offering ‘boost’)