Month: January 2020

Classic Chase & Kempton Preview

There’s some excellent races for National Hunt purists today, and none better than the Classic Chase (3:00) at Warwick. Much like Sandown, the Midlands track demands quick and accurate jumping, with four fences exceptionally close together, and this extended test really tends to bring out the best of certain

The standout bet here is THE CONDITIONAL, because I’m surprised he is even here at all. After winning a very deep handicap at Cheltenham with ease, beating subsequent winners West Approach and Cogry in the process, he ran with huge credit to finish second in the Ladbrokes Trophy. That is by far the best form in the race, and if he is still on top form after those two efforts, a repeat performance should see him win against this weaker field.

There are two obvious dangers. Kimberlite Candy consistently runs well in competitive handicaps and should put in another bold display, but his only recent win came in a poor Class 3 handicap off a mark of just 133, yet he runs off 140 here versus The Conditional’s 142, and I believe the latter is a better horse. Le Breuil is rated 148 by the handicapper and runs off top weight here, and his victory in the gruelling National Hunt Chase proves he will stay. But his other form doesn’t really entitle him to such a lofty mark, and his jumping can sometimes be pedestrian, which will put him on the back foot at Warwick. I wouldn’t put you off an each-way play – with some firms giving generous terms – but again, The Conditional looks better treated.

Over at Kempton, a specialist seems to have gone somewhat under the radar, with good prices still available as I type. MERCIAN PRINCE is seeking a hat-trick in the Unibet Handicap Chase (1:30) and has clearly been prepared for the task by Amy Murphy with a spin over hurdles just before Christmas. The nine-year-old ran well at Catterick that day, showing he’s in good health, and he comes alive over course and distance: he won by 17 lengths off a mark of 139 last year, and won handily off a mark of 134 in 2018. He’s back down to a mark of 141, and the last time he ran from this sort of mark (143) in a race of this sort of class, he beat Romain De Senam at Plumpton.

Favourite Sammy Bill is the only other horse bringing good form to this contest, but he is up 11lb for his Aintree win, and the form of that race has not been franked since. As such, he could now be in the handicapper’s grip. Sao has long been talked about as a proper horse by Paul Nicholls, but has yet to show it on the track in the UK, so let’s hope this isn’t the day he puts it all together.

Later on the card at Kempton, ON THE BLIND SIDE is sure to go close in the 3:15 Handicap Chase, but his price is too short to put him up as a ‘tip’ given he’s far from a certainty. Walt, for example, came alive on his last visit to Kempton, and could be a major danger if he does so again.

 

Recommended Bets:

Kempton 1:30 – Mercian Prince 1pt e/w at 13/2 (BOG, general)

Warwick 3:00 – The Conditional 2pts win at 4/1 (BOG, general)

Sandown Handicaps Preview

While it’s true to say that the cards this weekend have an ‘After The Lord Mayor’s Show’ feel to them – with so many stables’ best and brightest seen over Christmas and the New Year – there are four horses who look good value at Sandown. Never miss an opportunity in this game!

In the 1:20 Handicap Chase, CAP DU NORD is available at double-figure odds, which underestimates his chances. The seven-year-old ran with credit in fourth in a strong Class 2 at Ascot last time out in deep ground, which doesn’t suit him. That run bodes well, and down in class here on better ground, Cap Du Nord looks to have been found a good opportunity by trainer Christian Williams. Williams obviously has his string in decent fettle given Potters Corner’s win in the Welsh National, and it’s notable that Jack Tudor is aboard with his extremely handy seven pound claim. Tudor is great value for that claim, meaning the seven-year-old gelding runs off (effectively) a mark of 115, and given he won in March at this grade off a mark of 118, this race could be within his grasp. Dashing Perk, who won well over course and distance in December, is an obvious danger, but he jumped to the right that day and given Cap Du Nord is available at four times the price, the value choice is obvious.

The highlight of the day for the vast majority of racing fans won’t be the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle, but the Veterans Chase Final (3:00), where old foes do battle in memory of Houblon Des Obeaux. There are two horses who I’m keen on here, especially given the drying ground won’t suit well-fancied favourite Jepeck.

The first is DARK FLAME, who has obvious claims given his second in the voided London National last month. The “winner” that day, Doing Fine, achieved a genuine win on his next start, boosting the form, and while many of these older horses are racking up their form only in veterans’ races, Dark Flame achieved that second place in open company. He’s only had 12 career starts, so might not even have reached his peak, and if so a mark of 125 is eminently workable.

The second choice is the legendary VIEUX LION ROUGE, still only eleven years old. He simply may have the class edge in this field if on song, having already proved his wellbeing this season by winning a Veterans Chase at Chepstow. Extraordinarily it’s his Sandown debut, but given this lovable chaser is famous for his impeccable jumping, he should find the track to his advantage. His odds look wrong at the current prices, and he’s worth an investment.

Finally, the closing 3:35 Handicap Hurdle has been chosen by Colin Tizzard as the comeback race for ELDORADO ALLEN, the stable’s number one novice hurdler last term until his desperately unfortunate injury at Aintree. The handicapper hasn’t been overly kind by allocating him a mark of 145, but if he is fully tuned up that mark vastly understates his ability, and he could hose up in this company. This is a bet with obvious risks attached – Eldorado Allen may not retain all his ability and/or may desperately need the run – but the market reflects that, and odds of 11/2 could look ridiculous if he is truly back on song.

 

Recommended Bets 04/01/20 (all Sandown):

1:20 Cap Du Nord 1pt e/w at 12/1 (Various)

3:00 Vieux Lion Rouge 0.5pts e/w at 16/1 (4 places, Various) & Dark Flame 0.5pts e/w at 13/2 (4 places, Various)

3:35 Eldorado Allen 1.5pts win at 11/2 (Hills, Coral)