- Ante-Post Betting Can Offer Good Value (No Matter Who Says Otherwise)
It seems to have become accepted as fact that “there’s no point in betting ante-post any more” – but that’s simply not true. If you are lucky enough to have open and largely unrestricted accounts with several bookies – as I am, largely due to an abysmally sloppy spell of betting about four years ago – then there was a perfectly decent variety of prices and betting terms available for ante-post bets on the Festival. Some bookies even took the old-fashioned approach of having an opinion, a good example being Paddy Power’s 33/1 NRNB on Bristol de Mai in the Gold Cup. Thanks gents. An equally stand-out instance of blatant long-term value was provided by Tiger Roll, who was available with several firms at 5/1 after his defeat under top weight at Cheltenham in November.
Of course, several of my ante-post wagers were lost due to horses being unfit to race in March – I’m still frustrated by the almost comically unlucky circumstances of the injury to Eldorado Allen – but that risk should be priced in to your betting. I have no sympathy for lost bets due to horse taking up an alternative engagement or skipping the festival: if you bet before any NRNB is available, weighing up the horse’s target is a key part of whether the price is value; if you choose not to take a smaller NRNB price once the option is there, then again, that should form part of your value consideration.
- Value Is King (It’s Not Always The Bets You’re Excited About That Work Out)
If you’re even a semi-regular gambler, then it should be obvious to you that the game is finding value, not necessarily finding winners, although a quick look at Twitter confirms that this concept remains elusive to a depressingly large number of people. I was reminded of this by getting totally unexpected returns from a couple of bets I’d struck at small stakes during the season. My answer to the question “what is your stupidest open ante-post bet?” in the pub in Painswick on the Monday night of festival week didn’t require much thought: Sam Spinner. Everybody laughed, including me. As we know, on the day I was still laughing, but this time with delight! The proven Grade One performer, running in a weaker renewal than last year (when he was sent off favourite), finally ran back to his form after a strange season. In the cold light of day, that bet was obviously good value.
Equally, even though I lost a fair chunk on him, I wouldn’t take back my bets on Pic d’Orhy in the Triumph. A proven Grade One performer in France, he looked to be facing only one serious rival in terms of outright ability (Sir Erec), is trained by a genius at bringing French horses straight onto a UK racecourse (Paul Nicholls), and yet was available at 20/1+ in January and February. He was dreadful on the day, but I maintain that bets placed at 22/1 and 25/1 weren’t poor bets.
Sometimes prices are just wrong on all objective evidence. Keep taking those prices, and things will work out in the end.
- The Handicaps Are Well Worth The Effort
Repeat after me: Cheltenham handicaps are not ‘impossible’ or ‘unbelievably competitive’. In fact, they ought to be a punter’s dream: there are great place terms on offer, a betting-friendly over-round online, and every horse in the field is trying to win.
My ante-post handicap betting didn’t work out this year – although I was already counting my Éclair de Beaufeu money on the turn for home! – but there’s always at least one winner to be found in the open handicaps during the week. Any Second Now obliged in the Kim Muir for me this year, and I’m not going to call myself a judge for finding him, as it was relatively obvious. The Pertemps didn’t offer too many surprises either, although I didn’t back the winner. And the Plate was so predictable that I managed to persuade myself into the first successful reverse forecast of my life!
I’m not saying all of this to big myself up – I only broke even across the week, which given the offers available and effort put in, is pathetic and proof I’m no judge – but I met a number of people during the week insisting many of the handicaps were a ‘lottery’. Can I play a lottery that’s this predictable please?!
- Betting During The Week Itself Requires Iron-Willed Discipline (And Fewer Pints Of Guinness)
I go the Festival to enjoy myself, and this can lead to a fairly, ahem, enthusiastic Guinness intake during the four days on-course, especially in the unlikely event of me having a decent winner. This means that when I’ve tallied everything up, I’ll have lost money on bets placed during the week itself, versus having made a profit on ante-post betting. I’ve now done this five years in a row.
My sloppy betting on course is due entirely to my inner monologue which, drunk on both alcohol and Cheltenham adrenaline, and overloaded with information, gives me thoughts like the following:
- “Last year’s Coral Cup is looking amazing…maybe I’d better have some money on Bleu Berry [but not William Henry because he’s done nothing this season]”
- “I’ve got ample ante-post on Pic d’Orhy at 22s and 25s, so why NOT go in again on the day at 14s?”
- “Glen Forsa cannot lose this Arkle if he turns up. A few bets won’t cut it. I need to absolutely smash this [totally unproven at the top level, English] horse”
- “Only having one horse in the Albert Bartlett just won’t do. I should pick another one [in the race I have never ever had a place] and punt way too much on that”
- “Yes, I know I liked the look of him, and I know I even wrote than on the blog, and I know Duc Des Genievres has just totally franked his form and proved he’s a graded horse in a handicap…but there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY I’m backing A Plus Tard at that short a price”
I could go on. Suffice to say, this nonsense does not do wonders for my P&L.
- Pay More Attention To Collateral Form
The example I’ve just mentioned – A Plus Tard hosing up in the Close Brothers – should serve as yet another reminder that despite all the bells and whistles, and special Cheltenham trends, form is still king. If a horse’s form is franked during the week itself, that’s a good thing. If the price is still there, that’s an even better thing. Be flexible, be willing to change your thinking, and back the horses whose form is being proven as strong. I forget this every year, turning up to Cheltenham with my opinions already set in stone at the beginning of the week.
- Multiples Are A Mug’s Bet
Every year I try to resist the siren call of the muggy multiple, and then every year I get lured in and dash myself on the trixie-and-yankee-shaped rocks. Repeat after me: Cheltenham is incredibly competitive, and it’s hard enough to find a single winner, let alone predict a precise combination of winners.
My failure this year was particularly noteworthy, because it was actually based on a solid logical premise – or so I thought. I had picked out the Champion Hurdle as my starting point, due to my very strong opinion that Laurina had no chance of winning the race, even if she ran at her best. As Laurina’s odds shortened, I placed various trixies and yankees based entirely around Buveur d’Air and Apple’s Jade as the ‘banker’ leg – because with Laurina out of the picture, one of the two was certain to win. We all know what happened next: I was barely able to watch the second mile of the race, with Buveur d’Air down and Apple’s Jade already well beaten. Laurina’s bang average performance wasn’t much of a consolation given the siren’s call had basically bankrupted me yet again.
Bookies base their whole business model around what they call “exotics”, as that’s where all their money is made. Don’t do doubles, kids: leave the accas to the one-bet-a-week Ladbrokes lads.
- Play To Your Strengths
I have a good record over the years in big-money handicaps. I have a distinctly average record in open Grade Ones. Yet I continue to bet more on the Grade Ones than the handicaps. Why? Why, just because the average punter prefers to bet bigger on the championship races, should I follow suit?
Even more bafflingly, what made me suddenly decide I was a brilliant judge of juveniles this season? I know next to nothing about pedigrees, I’m not a good paddock judge, and I don’t have contacts in the game. Why I am lumping on horses ante-post for the Triumph? What possesses me to do that?
And, for the love of God, WHY DO I CONTINUE TO BET ON THE MARES NOVICES AND THE ALBERT BARTLETT?
Next year, I’m going to play to my strengths. We all have them, so be honest with yourself, and play to yours too.
- Cheltenham Form In The Book Is Invaluable In The Handicaps – Never Ever Forget It
Of course we all know this, but it was proven yet again this year. Here’s some examples, and there may be a few more I’ve forgotten:
Ultima Chase: Beware The Bear (4th Ultima 2018)
Coral Cup: William Henry at 28/1 (4th Coral Cup 2018)
Brown Advisory Plate: Siruh Du Lac & Janika (1st and 2nd over C&D earlier in the season), Spiritofthegames (5th 2018 County Hurdle)
Grand Annual: Croco Bay at 66/1 (5th 2017 Grand Annual)
- And Finally…The Jockey Club Needs A Reality Check (The Drugs Don’t Work, Kids)
Racecourse owners and administrators need a wake-up call: drug use on course is rife from Tuesday to Thursday, and it reaches another level entirely on Friday. It’s not a few leads sneaking in the odd bit of coke; it’s a very significant percentage of the crowd whose every thought during the day is focussed on how and where they can do yet another line.
Now, I’m not a reactionary, by any means: I’m young(ish) and I don’t have any particular objection to other people deciding to do drugs, apart from the fact that in the case of cocaine, it turns them into an interminable arsehole for the duration of their high. But the level of drug-taking on course at Cheltenham on Friday has reached such a level that the experience for the small number of us who haven’t snorted half of Colombia’s GDP has become unpleasant.
The general atmosphere is tense, like a town-centre nightclub on a Saturday night, rather than friendly and inclusive, meaning you constantly wonder whether accidentally bumping into someone will start a fight. People don’t really bother to watch the racing, even the Gold Cup, and cheer horses falling if it gives their £5 bet a better chance. And trying to go to the toilet between races becomes an impossibility given the number of those queuing who want privacy for something other than seeing to their bodily functions.
While it was welcome to see a couple of sniffer dogs on duty this year, this token gesture doesn’t even scratch the surface of dealing with the problem. Either Cheltenham management needs to get serious about deterring drug use on-course, and employ a far, far higher number of dogs plus random searches, or it should accept the inevitable and adapt its facilities accordingly. There would need to be loads more toilets, and stewarded “quiet areas” within each stand where people who want to watch the racing can actually immerse themselves in the action without the constant background banter of people whose copious cocaine intake means they can’t possibly concentrate for five seconds, let alone five minutes.
I don’t think any of the posh older gents – and let’s be honest, they are posh older gents – running the racecourse have any idea of the scale of the problem. If it continues for another year or two, there won’t be any actual racing fans on course on the Friday – and that’s surely not what the sport wants for its blue riband event, is it?