Tag: Ante-Post

Seven Underrated Horses For Your 2019-20 Jumps Season Trackers

VISION D’HONNEUR

Not under the radar, but certainly underrated: Vision d’Honneur ended the season with a relatively low profile, considering his hefty pricetag and big reputation this time last year. That’s because Gordon Elliott’s young horse – and don’t forget how young he is compared to his rivals, with a March 2014 birthday –  fell at the last at Punchestown after only finishing 9th in the Supreme at Cheltenham. But as the Arctic Monkeys famously sang, “anticipation has a habit to set you up…for disappointment”, and those writing off this horse as a result of his poor runs in the Spring festivals are overreacting.

He arrived at Cheltenham having traded blows with Aramon and Klassical Dream in the Grade One at the Dublin Racing Festival before ultimately being outpaced and finishing six lengths back; before that he’d won a decent Punchestown novice hurdle fairly comfortably. That’s pretty decent form, especially for a young horse who clearly had a lot of filling out left to do over the summer.

But a closer look at his apparently ‘dreadful’ run in the Supreme is where things get even more interesting. He was blatantly outpaced down the hill after travelling fine, and then was given the easiest ride imaginable after that. It’s fairly obvious that Elliott, and Gigginstown connections, feel that this horse has far more to offer as a novice chaser over further, and given his scope it’s hard to disagree. Elliott commented in his stable tour for Betfair that “last season…the ground was too quick and he was too weak…we tried him in some bog races before he was ready for that level of competition. Don’t be surprised if he makes up into a high-class novice chaser.”

I won’t be surprised, Gordon. In fact, I think he’s a ludicrous price for the JLT in March, and I’m already willing to have a small punt.

 

BRIGHT FORECAST

Ben Pauling’s pride and joy was picked out by Nico de Boinville as the horse he was particularly looking forward to riding again this season – and that’s quite some statement from the man who rides most of Nicky Henderson’s string!

Pauling gave Bright Forecast a deliberately light novice hurdling campaign last term, feeling that the horse needed to develop further over the summer before being seen at his best over fences as an older and stronger horse. In that context, his form last term is even more impressive. His second place behind Mister Fisher doesn’t look amazing on the face of it, but given it was over a sharp 15.5 furlongs at Haydock, and given he nearly ran out on one bend, it was a good effort. Best of all was his eye-catching third in the Supreme, when he ran on powerfully up the hill after being outpaced.

That run marked him out as a horse with more stamina than outright speed; indeed, Pauling has suggested the RSA could be a target, which seems remarkable given that he was sent over such sharp trips over hurdles. I would be keener for him to run over intermediate trips with an eye on the JLT in March, but either way, he first needs to prove he can jump a fence. If he can – and his schooling has apparently been “electric” – he should go right to the top of the novice chasing division.

 

ELDORADO ALLEN

In my opinion, no two-mile novice hurdler made a bigger initial impression last season then Eldorado Allen at Sandown. He was magnificent that day: he settled well, jumped efficiently, and sped away from the field with an extraordinary burst of speed. And he didn’t beat nothing; the collateral form of many of the horses behind him that day has been strong. Sadly he was the victim of cruel fortune in his next start at Aintree and hasn’t race since, but Colin Tizzard has been making encouraging noises about his recovery, and has confirmed that he will stay hurdling this season.

If he has progressed over the summer – and of course, for a horse who has missed almost a whole year, that’s a big if – then in my view he can make up for lost time and take leading rank among two-mile hurdlers this season. Last season’s champion Espoir d’Allen is regrettably out for the year, leaving Klassical Dream as the only proven outstanding horse in the division, unless Buveur d’Air retains all his ability and speed as he ages. It could be an open division.

Of course, this is highly speculative – this is all based on one run against novices, which might have been a flash in the pan – but Colin Tizzard still thinks the world of this horse, and given the prices available, it might be worth a tiny investment to find out if the wily trainer is right.

 

HIGHWAY ONE O ONE

Full disclosure: I’m a big fan of Chris Gordon’s chaser, and backed him for the Close Brothers at the festival, when he disappointed. So there’s a danger that he’s simply a cliff horse for me, but let me try to persuade you otherwise.

Apart from that festival flop, his form is impeccable for a horse rated just 144 by the handicapper in his best conditions (decent ground, 2.5+ miles): he trailed Kildisart, winner at Aintree, by just two lengths carrying two pounds more than him at Cheltenham in January; he was then narrowly beaten back at Cheltenham in an open Grade 2 handicap by the high-class Mister Whitaker. With another year under his belt, he can land a big prize this year off this mark, which to my eyes underestimates his jumping and travelling ability – when things fall in his favour.

 

DRINKS INTERVAL

Colin Tizzard’s mare finished last season with form figures reading PFP, so on the face of it she’s not one to follow, but those letters don’t tell the true story. She’d been on the go since April 2018, and had 11 starts between then and her fairly short 74-day lay-off leading into her three ill-fated runs in Spring 2019. In short, she needed a rest, and Tizzard himself would probably admit he shouldn’t have run her in March and April.

At her best, she was an impressive sight over fences, particularly when allowed to dictate proceedings from the front of the field, and she would probably have got herself some black type but for an unlucky late fall at Market Rasen. Her victory under a penalty at Chepstow was particularly striking, and marked her out as a classy mare.

Following the dreadful finish to last season, she’s back down to an official rating of 137 with a top RPR in her favoured conditions of 148. That makes her one to note in handicaps, although she has shown a tendency to get het up in the preliminaries in open company, most notably before the RSA at Cheltenham. In the right race, she can get back on track, but she does need conditions to be spot on to shine.

 

UNCLE ALASTAIR

Cruelly injured after just one chase start last season, the Rooney’s strapping 7-year-old should have a lot to offer this season if his long lay-off hasn’t done him any permanent damage. Although he only finished second, that chasing debut run was full of promise, as he ran the high-class Vinndication close over 20 furlongs at Carlisle. Watching that run back, there’s nothing not to like: he had to make the running, jumped almost perfectly, stayed on very well and wasn’t given a particularly hard time in the process. He’s only rated 135 by the handicapper, and if he’s fit and firing, he should go close in a big handicap over 2.5 to 3 miles this year.

 

GOOD BOY BOBBY

Another Rooney-owned horse who went under the radar after an underwhelming 2018-19 season, Good Boy Bobby can make amends this year. His novice hurdling campaign drowned in the mud at Ffos Las in November, where he failed to defy Somme-like conditions and was shattered by the experience. To be honest, Nigel Twiston-Davies shouldn’t have entered him, but Twister doesn’t really believe in horses not running. The then 5-year-old wasn’t seen again until the kinder conditions of March and April, where he got back on track with two facile wins, the first by the small matter of 44 lengths at Southwell, and then by a good margin back at Ffos Las (for some extraordinary reason).

None of that bare form screams “proper horse”, but the visual impression given in the three of his four starts on normal ground made this observer believe that Good Boy Bobby has a lot more to offer. He may be the wrong price in his races this side of Christmas, and I intend to take advantage of that.

 

Recommended Bets 

VISION D’HONNEUR – 0.5pts win – JLT Novices’ Chase @ 40/1 (Hills)

ELDORADO ALLEN – 0.25pts win – Champion Hurdle @ 66/1 (Various)

Ante-Post Angle: JLT Novice Chase

The JLT Chase is undoubtedly one of the trickier races at the Festival for ante-post betting, given that so many of the horses in the picture also have entries for the Arkle, RSA or handicap chases. But this year, this lack of clarity presents an opportunity. A quick look at the odds makes it relatively obvious: most of the current markets leaders aren’t even going to be in the race, so there must be value at bigger prices.

Topofthegame – RSA Chase (for which he has every chance)

La Bague Au Roi – will skip Cheltenham altogether

Le Richebourg – Arkle (already backed in this series)

Kalashnikov – Arkle (although he would have a great chance in the JLT)

Delta Work – RSA (with a huge shout as clearly the best of Irish)

Vinndication – RSA or may skip Cheltenham altogether. Anyhow, he wouldn’t have anywhere near the pace for the JLT.

That leaves Defi du Seuil (9/2 or 3/1 NRNB) and Lostintranslation (5/1 or 9/2 NRNB) as the clear favourites, with the next priced horses who are actually going to line up in March available at 16/1 and bigger. If you can’t spot the potential value in that scenario, you shouldn’t be reading an ante-post betting blog!

The challenge, of course, is to figure out which of those big prices does represent value, if indeed any do – because if Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation are nailed on to finish 1-2, then we’re wasting our time. Happily, my view is that both horses’ chances have been exaggerated, and there’s no way they can be 12+ points clear of all of their rivals. The two horses have intertwined form: on New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, Lostintranslation stayed on up the hill to narrowly beat his rival; then in the Scilly Isles at Sandown, Defi du Seuil got his revenge by showing a lovely turn of tactical speed at the key moment. The margins of victory almost cancel each other out, and the horses’ form lines via the other British novices La Bague Au Roi and Topofthegame just confirm how closely matched they are.

As such, their form and class can be examined as a pair – and the argument that they are clearly superior to all their rivals really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Most obviously, they are rated 150 and 151 by the handicapper after four runs each on a variety of courses. This only just makes them the highest rated horses in the race, and these ratings aren’t obviously superior: without further improvement, that level of performance wouldn’t have won the JLT in 2015, 2016 or 2017, and maybe not last year’s running where the front two were rated 151 (Shattered Love with her allowance). In fact, only one of the eight runnings of the JLT has been won by the highest-rated horse going into the race, because it’s a novice race for improving horses. If a horse is exposed already, it needs to be blatantly high-class to justify such skinny prices. Both these animals are clearly good chasers, but 12 points better than any rival? There’s no firm evidence for it.

So what about the rest of the horses who are entered? Which horse can outrun its odds?

 

EACH-WAY CONTENDERS

 

Champagne Classic (16/1) – Chase OR N/A (RPR 153), Hurdles OR 150, 1 chase run (3rd G3)

Famously described by Michael O’Leary as his “worst horse” when he won the 2017 Martin Pipe Hurdle, that 100% record at the Festival immediately makes him of interest. He followed up that victory with an impressive win in the Grade One novice hurdle at Punchestown, beating Penhill into second, so he has the class for this level of racing. He was then off the track for 641 days until his chasing debut in January, where on the face of it his 12-length third behind Ballyward over 3 miles at Naas was uninspiring. But there was a fair amount to like about that run: he jumped slickly in the main and travelled very well for 2.5 miles, and it was no surprise he didn’t finish his race off after so long off the track. The problem is that he is entered for Gigginstown – never the easiest owners’ intentions to read – in the RSA and 4-miler as well. Discorama looked awkward and fell in the same Naas race, and can’t be considered without more form in the book.

 

Real Steel (20/1) –  OR N/A (RPR 147), Hurdles OR 140, 2 chase runs (F,1)

As possibly Willie Mullins’ main chance in this race, by default this unheralded 6-year-old merits further consideration. He was a mediocre hurdler, with only one victory over timber to his name, and could only trail into 11th in last year’s Albert Bartlett. That in itself is a concern, not for his finishing position, but more for the fact he was entered in that 3-mile slog rather than a shorter trip. A further concern is that he fell on chasing debut at Leopardstown before winning last time out at Fairyhouse, prompting Paul Townend to comment that “he’s won two races going right handed, whether that makes a difference to him or not”. While The JLT is probably his target – Mullins, a creature of habit, sent Kemboy to the same Fairyhouse chase before running him in the JLT last year – there are too many negatives to be interested at this point, and his trainer ensures he’s exposed in the market. Voix du Reve is Mullins’ other possible major player here, but he seems far more likely to go the Arkle. Other Mullins runners could include Robin Des Foret – only entered for the JLT, extraordinarily, although already 9 – and mare Camelia De Cotte, but playing Mullins Bingo isn’t an attractive ante-post proposition.

 

Winter Escape (20/1) – OR 150 (top RPR 157), Hurdles OR 141, 6 runs (3,2,1,1 G3, 1 G3, 5 G1)

After a long break, Winter Escape went chasing for Aiden Howard in two low-key races over the Summer at Galway, before two impressive wins in Grade 3s brought him wider acclaim. This saw him go off in the Flogas Novice Chase just 9/2, but in the end he was well beaten into fifth by La Bague Au Roi and others. Hardline, who finished third that day, looked a real stayer and was outpaced at the critical times, meaning he would be far more suited to taking up his entries in the RSA or National Hunt Chase. Winter Escape did break blood vessels in that run, but it may be that his impressive RPR figures up to that point were inflated. When pushed, he just didn’t look good enough, and with six chase runs at eight-years-old there may not be too much more improvement to come.

 

Paloma Blue (20/1, 25/1 Unibet) – OR 146 (RPR 144), Hurdles OR 149, 2 runs (4,1)

Henry de Bromhead’s fascinating seven-year-old would be the classiest hurdler to line up in the JLT, so can’t be discounted, but on all available evidence at the time of writing he jumps like an equine washing machine.

 

Kildisart (20/1) – OR 147 (RPR 154), Hurdles OR 142, 3 runs (2,1 C2,1 C2)

In such a weak renewal, handicappers who have proved they are ahead of their official mark should not be discounted. The fact that Kildisart did this over JLT course and distance, in some style, makes him an even more interesting contender. Given that he beat two very reliable yardsticks, Highway One O One and Spiritofthegames, into second and third that day, his form is rock-solid. That means a further improvement on the day of 5-6 pounds could be enough to see him win the JLT, and his trainer Ben Pauling’s comments that “I’m hopeful there’s more to come…he’s a work in progress” offer encouragement of that possibility in March. Having been raised above the level where he could take part in Pauling’s previous first choice race, the novice handicap, he is almost certain to take his place in the JLT, so no NRNB concession is required. That makes quotes of 20/1 generous given the paucity of his likely opposition, and a small wager should be chanced that he is progressive enough to get himself into the frame in March.

 

Drovers Lane (25/1) – OR 150 (RPR 154), Hurdles OR 131, 4 runs (1,7,1,1 C2)

On the face of Drovers Lane’s ratings, it’s absolutely baffling that he is five times the price of Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation, who have similar marks. However, he was only rated an ordinary 131 over hurdles, and his two chase wins in November and December – rated so highly at the time – are looking more questionable with the benefit of hindsight. Le Breuil, beaten at Cheltenham, followed up that second place with a 14-length 4th in a Grade 2 at Haydock, way behind Jerrysback and the winner Castafiore, and that casts major doubts over the whole form line. In addition, Drovers Lane’s jumping during his Cheltenham win was far from foot-perfect. At this stage, without any runs since, there are too many question marks to back Rebecca Curtis to land the JLT.

 

LIVE OUTSIDERS


Mr Whipped (33/1) – OR 145 (RPR 152), Hurdles OR 145, 2 runs (3 C2, 1 C2)

Nicky Henderson’s young hopeful was involved in a terrific four-way tussle at Cheltenham in November, but after belting the last couldn’t challenge Count Meribel and Le Breuil. He since won a good race at Haydock, but had to be given five pounds to beat Springtown Lake by just two lengths. Put simply, this form looked good at the time but is now highly questionable, and he just doesn’t seem good enough – but he is one of the entries with the biggest potential for major improvement – and his target for March is also unclear.

 

Pravalaguna (40/1) – OR N/R (RPR 144), Hurdles OR 138, 3 runs (4,1 Mares,1 Mares)

This Willie Mullins mare wasn’t discussed in the Mullins section above, because she’s a little different from his other entries: she has only raced this season against her own sex, winning both times. Given her allowance in the JLT, and her RPR, she would have a chance of following up Shattered Love’s win last year to make it two in a row for mares. However, she is also entered for the Arkle, won over 2 miles last time out, wasn’t a star hurdler, and as such her NRNB quotes of just 20/1 are far too skinny.

 

Castafiore (50/1, 40/1 NRNB) – OR 139 [+7] (RPR 148), Hurdles OR 128, 3 runs (4,1,1 G2)

Another mare, she sprung a huge surprise when landing an open Grade Two at Haydock in January at odds of 28/1. It’s not hard to see why she was so long in the betting for that contest: she was only one win from two in weak Class 3 chases going into it, and it would be too kind to call her hurdling record mediocre. But she did win, and in some style too, trouncing Jerrysback (by 5 lengths), Crucial Role (14) and Le Breuil (14.5), and that can’t simply be explained away as a freak result. Her previous win at Wincanton didn’t look much at the time, but the second placed mare Little Miss Poet since won a decent race handily at Ludlow. It’s certainly true that Jerrysback didn’t take to the Haydock fences – many horses don’t – but she didn’t just beat him, she beat four well-regarded geldings. At this stage of the season, it is still possible that this was indeed a freak bit of form, but the fact remains that she won a Grade Two Novice Chase over 2.5 miles in a year where the JLT field looks weak. An improvement of 5-6 pounds on that run – as it was rated on RPR – plus her mares allowance would put her right in the picture in March. With quotes of 40/1 NRNB available, she must surely be a minor each-way play, with very little risk attached.

 

RECOMMENDED BETS (13/1/19)

Kildisart – 1pt win at 20/1 (Hills, Betfair, Coral)

Castafiore – 0.5pts e/w at 40/1 NRNB (Bet 365, 3×1/4 or Paddy Power, 3×1/5)

Ante-Post Angle: Grand National 2019

Far from the supposed lottery that it used to be, the Grand National has become a more predictable race in recent years due to three key changes. Firstly, the severity of the notorious Aintree fences has been reduced, in order to (successfully) reduce the death rate in British racing’s biggest showcase. This means that the pile-ups of the past have disappeared, reducing the randomness of the outcome and giving better horses a greater chance of getting round. Secondly, the winning prize fund has mushroomed to an almost vulgar £500,000, and it’s hardly surprising that connections who would previously have swerved this risky and brutal test are now sending their classier staying chasers to Aintree. Thirdly, recently retired UK Head Handicapper Phil Smith deserves credit for his policy of compressing the weights, which has given quality horses a genuine chance of winning, and has made victory more difficult for bang-average sloggers at the bottom of the handicap.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that picking the winner is easy – this is still a 40-runner handicap run at a furious initial pace over imposing fences for a marathon four-miles-two-furlongs, in case you’re getting cocky – but it’s become a race where ante-post betting is no longer purely the pursuit of lunatics. For the sake of all-important value, it’s imperative to stake a wager before the weights are released, when punters’ attention suddenly shifts to the race. There is no real reason to wait for the weights, after all, as the handicapper’s changes tend to be fairly predictable: Irish horses go up a few pounds, and English course specialists can get raised a pound or two if they’ve obviously been held back all season for April. Rather than going through all the entries – which would be an act of lunacy in mid-February – I’m going to pick out one horse whose price seems inflated given his obvious claims, and another whose sheer class demands consideration.

MISSED APPROACH – Warren Greatrex

Greatrex confirmed the Grand National as the nine-year-old’s “big target this year” in an honest and revealing piece in the Racing Post Weekender. “We’ve deliberately kept him back until the weights are announced and then he’ll have one run, preferably in the Eider, before Aintree. He’d need his next run to blow away the cobwebs but then he’ll be a seriously interesting horse for Aintree as he’ll definitely stay and the race will bring out all of his biggest attributes.” With a deeper look at his profile, this horse has every tick in the book for a Grand National winner:

  • Rating & Weight: Rated 145, which barring a strange set of circumstances should be enough to get into the race, but not high enough to take him above the historically-significant 11-stone barrier.
  • Proven Stayer: Won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year on soft ground, a proper test over 3m2f, and had previously stayed on strongly when second in the 4m1f Edinburgh National, third in the 3m5f Betfred Classic Chase and second in the 2017 Cheltenham 4-miler behind a certain Tiger Roll.
  • Big Fences: Enjoyed the Grand National fences on his sighter over them in the Becher Chase in December, although he did make one error when trying to get back into the race after being left at the start.

That all said, this is still a handicap, and as such form is king. It’s that run in the Becher Chase that makes this horse such good value: the bare form says he finished a distant sixth, but that doesn’t tell half the story because he had two big excuses. Firstly he was left at the start, giving up several lengths to the rest of the field; secondly, he was badly hampered at the key moment in the race when the major players made their move, and had no chance of getting involved after that. For much of the race, he shaped as the best horse.

Given Missed Approach was good enough to beat two comically well-handicapped Irish plot horses in last year’s Kim Muir at Cheltenham off a mark of 138, a mark of 145 (even if adjusted slightly by the handicapper) looks more than within his grasp. With his target confirmed, he rates an excellent bet at 40/1.

 

ELEGANT ESCAPE – Colin Tizzard

Elegant Escape is a seriously classy staying chaser. He won this season’s Welsh National off a mark of 151, the sort of run that marks him out as having the potential to go close in a Grand National off a mark in the 160s, and as such he merits serious respect. After all, the much-missed Many Clouds, who triumphed in 2015 off 160, had earlier that season landed another big staying handicap chase (the Hennessey) off a mark of…151. It’s true that Many Clouds won that season’s Cotswold Chase, while Elegant Escape had to settle for a staying-on second place, but that run should be seen as another positive showing for Tizzard’s charge. Firstly, Frodon’s official mark of 169 is rock-solid given his runs in open handicaps earlier in the season, meaning that Elegant Escape could still be well-treated off 162. Secondly, Elegant Escape yet again showed off his stamina, passing his rivals up Cheltenham’s stiff hill only to find Frodon just too good.

In fact, in my opinion, the further Elegant Escape has to run, the better he will be. He was simply outpaced at key moments in both the RSA Chase and the Ladbroke (née Hennessey!), yet rallied in both quality races to finish in the places. When allowed to settle into his rhythm at a gentler pace in the Welsh National, run over 3m5f and against the kind of horses he’d be up against in the Grand National, he was always comfortable. If anything, having to run another half a mile would be to this out-and-out-stayer’s benefit. He also jumps impeccably and efficiently, something that’s vital around Aintree’s big and imposing fences.

That combination of class, reliability and stamina is not common, and means he has to be considered good enough to emulate Many Clouds and put himself in contention despite his lofty mark. But despite all of this, Elegant Escape really doesn’t have the profile of a Grand National winner.

Let’s take his age first. He is only a seven-year-old, and that is a concern: no horse younger than eight has won the race since Bogskar in 1940. But this is a very experienced horse who has had 17 rides under rules, including 11 chase starts, and he proved his toughness by winning the normally brutal Welsh National at Chepstow in December. He also competed against older horses with merit in the second-biggest handicap of the season, finishing second in the Ladbroke Trophy in November, and as such I’m happy enough to overlook Elegant Escape’s age.

Clearly, he would also be carrying a significant weight around Aintree, being officially rated 162, but there is still a major doubt about just how much weight that would be. His ability to win may depend on the participation of top-rated Bristol de Mai. Given Bristol de Mai is likely to run in the Gold Cup, he’s by no means certain – or perhaps even likely – to take part, even with connections’ current insistence that he will. Yet if BdM does turn up, his huge official rating of 173 might allow Elegant Escape to ‘only’ shoulder something around 11st5lbs rather than top weight, a significant boost, and something that would make Tizzard’s horse a much more attractive bet.

Most worryingly, in Colin Tizzard’s own words, “he wouldn’t be certain to run because he’s still a young horse and there’s plenty of time later”. Tizzard added that “if it was soft at Aintree he could be very interesting”, which puts into question Elegant Escape’s participation on standard Aintree good-to-soft going. 

Having long thought “the further the better” for this horse, I just couldn’t resist taking my chances, but there are too many unknowns to suggest others follow me in. Gambling on soft ground in April is too big a chance to take, and as such, despite all his class and form, Elegant Escape can’t rank as a recommended bet at this stage. If you are tempted despite the negatives, I’d insist on using the exchange markets, as not only will you secure a slightly juicier price, but the option of trading out of the bet remains on the table.

 

Recommended Bet

Missed Approach – 1pt win at 40/1 (General)

Ante-Post Angle: Arkle

Since the inception of the mid-distance JLT Novices Chase in 2008, the main danger of ante-post betting on Cheltenham’s novice chases is identifying the wrong race for your chosen horse. Skybet’s early NRNB concession can remove this element of risk, but in many instances at too great a cost to the price on offer. So there are two challenges to overcome in trying to identify value in these markets: firstly, to find underrated horses at good prices, which is hard enough; and secondly to then read all available clues to discern that horse’s March target.

There is next to no clarity for the JLT Chase, with almost every horse in the market having at least one, and sometimes more, alternative entries. Furthermore, there are no key trials for the JLT coming up in the near future, so it’s not the right time to be ante-post betting on that race. But there is a major trial on Saturday for the Arkle – the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown – and as such this is a good moment to try to locate any value.

The English Form

There are three English horses with interlinked form who look set for the Arkle, fitness permitting, and due in no small part to this clarity of Cheltenham target, they represent the head of the market. Lalor leapt his way to clear favouritism with an impeccable and powerful display in Cheltenham’s Arkle Trial in November, and this run probably still represents the best 2-mile form in the UK this season. But he followed this dominant display with a dreadful run at Sandown, when Dynamite Dollars totally reversed the form. His trainer blamed the soft ground, but Lalor was flat from the very start of the race, and he will have to show his exuberance between now and March to be worthy of such a short price. Meanwhile Dynamite Dollars represents a more solid proposition at a best price of 7/1; he’s improved on every start this season, looking progressive while being thoroughly professional. His last win, when he outjumped Kalashnikov at Kempton over Christmas, franked the previous form. There were great hopes for Kalashnikov as a novice chaser, but his jumping just doesn’t seem fluent enough at pace. If his trainer Amy Murphy changes her mind and steps him up in trip in the JLT, and hires a good jockey who can get him into a rhythm, then he would be of interest, but quotes as short as 7/1 for the Arkle represent dire value given the actual evidence on show.

But my strong suspicion is that all of this English two-mile form is slightly suspect, and may have been overrated by both the handicapper and punters. In Dynamite Dollars’ win at Sandown, he was driven all-out to beat Ornua by just two lengths. Yet Henry de Bromhead’s horse was only rated a lowly 138 over hurdles, and his Irish form is hardly top class: two second places and a win in Grade Three novice chases. Ornua’s form ties in closely with Cadmium, and that Mullins horse was beaten out of sight in Irish Graded races by Voix du Reve, Le Richebourg and Delta Work.

The Irish Form

What about the classier Irish two-milers then? The biggest pointer so far took place on Boxing Day in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown. The winner of that prestigious prize – won by Footpad, Min and Douvan in the last three years – was Joseph O’Brien’s Le Richebourg, who now boasts form of 1121 over the bigger obstacles, progressing on RPR every time. He jumps efficiently and can throw in a brave leap where necessary, and stayed on well in a way that bodes well for the Prestbury Park hill. Mengli Khan, the best Irish horse in the 2018 Supreme (3rd), blotted his copy book with a tired-looking fourth place. Also beaten at Leopardstown was Voix du Reve, who jumped badly all the way round under pressure.

Voix du Reve had previously beaten Hardline fairly readily at Punchestown, and he in turn got the better of the well-fancied Getabird on Boxing Day at Limerick. Ruby Walsh had chosen to ride Getabird over Voix du Reve, and the Ricci owned seven-year-old was sent off a well-punted odds-on favourite, so clearly the Willie Mullins stable thought he was well tuned up. On the day, however, he jumped slightly to the right at most fences – a continuation of a previous issue – and then made a shuddering error at the last to hand the race to his Elliott-trained rival.

Cilaos Emery suffered no such problems on his belated chasing debut at Gowran Park. Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old was rated 159 over hurdles, and that mark merits colossal respect if his jumping is up to scratch. It certainly was around Gowran Park: he didn’t stand off any fences, and jumped efficiently and straight-on. A better judge than me, a certain Willie Mullins, said he was “very pleased” and “happy” with his horse’s jumping. But he didn’t beat all that much in this Beginners’ Chase run on soft ground, and the price reflects his likely status as the Mullins/Walsh runner in the Arkle more than anything else.

Muddying the waters slightly is another JP McManus novice Defi du Seuil, whose defeat of Topofthegame at Exeter and narrow defeat to Lostintranslation at Cheltenham marks him out as one to note. His run over JLT course and distance on New Year’s Day was promising but marked him out as more of a two-miler: he jumped well in the main, hit the front two out, but was then outstayed up the hill. Even so, given Defi’s 25-length hammering by Lalor over two miles in November, albeit that was a run that was too bad to be true, surely Le Richebourg will be the green-and-gold’s number one in March?

The man who will make the decision is Frank Berry, racing manager to JP McManus. He said to the Racing Post that “all being well, Le Richebourg will run at Leopardstown [in the Irish Arkle] this weekend. Plans are a bit up in the air [for Defi du Seuil] at the moment as to where he’ll run next – he has quite a few options.”

The Best of The Rest

Another very likely runner in the Irish Arkle – seemingly because the owners want to watch the Ireland v England rugby match in Dublin as much as anything else! – is Knocknanuss. Trained by Gary Moore, it’s no surprise that he’s a brave and bold front-runner. The lightly-raced nine-year-old won two Class 3 novice chases at Fakenham and Newbury by an aggregate 38 lengths, but it was his second place against ill-fated Master Dino at Plumpton that marked him out as an animal with serious class. He conceded five pounds to the phenomenal French raider, yet only went down by a fighting seven lengths, having jumped impeccably and put the rest of the high-class field to bed three furlongs from home. That race was run over 2m3.5f, and he just didn’t quite get the trip; he seems best suited to a strongly run two miles with a stiff finish. Sound much like an Arkle to you? It does to me. The worry is that with Master Dino out injured, there’s nothing to frank his form. Of every single horse beaten by Knocknanuss this season – and I’ve checked – the only one not to run wretchedly since is Glenloe, and he was given a deliberately easy ride at Plumpton in classic JP McManus novice style.

At this point it’s hard to see something emerging as a serious contender from further down the betting. Either they’ve been seen on a racecourse and don’t look good enough, or they haven’t been out this season, in which case they’ll be too inexperienced on the day.

The Conclusion: Don’t Overthink It

There are plenty of races at the festival where statistics, trends and theories will lead to overpriced winners at big prices. The Arkle isn’t one of them. Seven of the last ten winners had the top RPR on the day; 24/27 winners had finished 1st/2nd in their prep run and not fallen in the season; 22/27 had won at least half of their chase starts.

Cilaos Emery may very well turn up as a short-priced favourite, but he’s currently the same price as a horse who’s won not just a Group One, but a Group One that happens to be the key Arkle trial. Ante-post betting is also about timing, and that horse LE RICHEBOURG is a very short price for the Irish Arkle this coming weekend. A win in that race ought to make him outright favourite for the Cheltenham Arkle given the justified doubts over the English contenders.

Is Le Richebourg almost guaranteed to turn up in March, meaning the NRNB concession isn’t required? The one concern at this point is that he won the Leopardstown Grade One after a strong pace was set by his stablemate Us And Them (presumably a deliberate tactic planned by the canny Joseph O’Brien to get the best out of his stable star), and that does bring the JLT into the equation. He’s 14/1 for the JLT, or 9/1 NRNB, reflecting that the bookies think he’s more likely to take the two-mile option, and notably longest with Paddy Power, who tend to have the best inside-track on running plans in Ireland. JP McManus also has both Defi du Seuil – discussed above – and possibly Winter Escape for the JLT, so isn’t short of alternative options.

All of that means it’s time to strike the bet now, gambling that Joseph O’Brien has him full-fit for the Irish Arkle at the weekend. That looks a risk worth taking at current prices, which have bounced back after an unfortunate Pricewise intervention. Hills are top price, and 7/1 is more than fair, but it’s a restrained bet at this point due to slight uncertainty over the weather forecast for the weekend in Ireland. If it comes up good ground, I’ll be very tempted to strike a bigger bet.

 

Recommended Bet

Le Richebourg – Arkle – 1.5pts Win @ 7/1 (William Hill)

Ante-Post Angle: Championship Chases

Entries for the championship chases at Cheltenham have been made, and this welcome festival milestone provides a perfect excuse for an in-depth look at the current ante-post markets, and a quest for that most elusive beast: good value. Happily, in two of the three races it looks like there is a real outlier in the market, so maybe there is some value after all…read on to find out where.

Gold Cup

To this observer there is no doubting which horse represents the best value in the current Gold Cup market: step forward BRISTOL DE MAI. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable star is the joint-highest rated horse out of the 43 entries made, and a two-time Grade One winner. He is also still only eight years old, right in the middle of the perfect age range for winners given that 26 of the last 29 Gold Cups have been won by seven, eight or nine year olds. He should therefore be an obvious leading contender.

But the narrative around this horse is that he ‘only performs at Haydock’ and ‘loves the mud’, and as a result he is available at long prices for March’s showpiece. It is certainly true to say that Bristol de Mai loves Haydock: both of his Grade One wins have come there, and he has recorded four of his five highest career RPRs at the Lancashire track. But his apparent hatred of Cheltenham in comparison has been exaggerated. He has only run at Prestbury Park three times: in January 2018 he was too bad to be true in the Cotswold Chase and had wind surgery two days later; in 2017 he was only 7th in the Gold Cup, but 2016-17 was a poor season all-round for a horse still adjusting to being in open company; while at the 2016 festival he ran an excellent race in the JLT Novices Chase, finishing second and posting his highest RPR of the season in the process. And as far as being soft-ground dependent goes, that is simply nonsense. His win in this season’s Grade One Betfair Chase was achieved on good ground, and his 2016 JLT 2nd was too. In fact, as far as ante-post betting is concerned, his ability to act on any ground is a big positive.

The remaining question mark is his dreadful – and short-lived – run in the King George, when he never settled and fell at the ninth fence. The horse was badly bumped by Thistlecrack at the first fence, which seemed to spook him, and his trainer used this excuse afterwards. This is a slight concern given the hustle and bustle of an open Gold Cup, but it’s not something that’s happened to the horse before, and perhaps it would be wisest simply to draw a line through the King George entirely. It’s certainly easier than trying to explain a race where every single horse surprised onlookers in one way or another.

Given all of that, quotes of 33/1 NRNB with Paddy Power seem extraordinary. The price presumes as fact that Bristol de Mai won’t act at Cheltenham, and that’s been shown to not necessarily be the case. So given it’s no runner no bet and there’s no risk attached, there’s only one question still to answer: could this horse win a Gold Cup if he does show his ability in March around the undulations of Cheltenham’s new course?

My answer, if he does act on the course, is a resounding yes. There are issues with all the other leading players in the market:

Presenting Percy – a worthy favourite, but yet to be seen on a racecourse this season. His previous build-up for Cheltenham wins took in six and five races in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Whilst true that his trainer favours unorthodox preparation for the festival, this unorthodoxy has always previously involved the horse actually running!

Native River – respected of course as champion, but that brutal race last year may mean he is past his absolute peak; also, only the very best horses win two Gold Cups, and he certainly isn’t an all-time great in terms of ability.

Kemboy – not yet shown that he can stay the extra two furlongs up the hill and only fourth in last season’s JLT.

Clan des Obeaux – well-beaten by Bristol de Mai at Haydock; form of his King George win highly questionable.

Thistlecrack – 11 years old and surely not a fluent enough jumper to win the big prize.

Road To Respect – Respected for his fourth in unsuitable conditions last year, but only a distant third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, and that’s a concern.

Al Boum Photo – only completed four of his seven chase starts, and fell at Cheltenham last year. There’s also no guarantee he will stay.

Bellshill – every chance if fully fit by March, but he has work to do on that front.

Might Bite – potentially ‘gone at the game’ after 2018’s epic battle with Native River.

Sizing John – has yet to show he has retained his ability and is fully-fit.

Elegant Escape – a wonderful horse, but in my mind too slow to win a good ground Gold Cup run at a strong pace.

Many of these horses could win the Gold Cup – and one of them is very likely to – but the question is the value of a 33/1 bet, not 3/1. With so many doubts about his rivals, Bristol de Mai looks a very generous price.

 

Ryanair Chase

The main factor when considering ante-post betting in the Ryanair Chase is which horses will actually end up taking part rather than pursuing alternative targets. Of those almost certain to end up in the Ryanair if fit and well – taking trainer comments into account as well as the most logical targets – Min, Waiting Patiently and Monalee would all have major claims, while Paul Nicholls’ duo of Politilogue and Frodon would have to be respected.

All of these horses have every chance in March, but are accordingly short in the market and represent little, if any, value two months before the action starts. Yet further down the list of highly-likely runners, there is one which may have been underestimated, Venetia Williams’ ASO. On the face of it, this horse isn’t up to winning an open Grade One, having competed largely in big-field handicaps since 2016, but a closer look leads to a different conclusion.

His win over (almost precisely) Ryanair course and distance on New Year’s Day was more comfortable than the two-length margin of victory suggests; his jockey Charlie Deutsch made absolutely sure of the win, rather than testing the horse to his limits. This victory was achieved from an already lofty official mark of 158, meaning Aso is now rated 163 by the handicapper. Any further improvement would put him right in the mix for a Ryanair champion in a year without a clearly exceptional favourite; last year’s winner Balko des Flos was rated 166, and 2015 winner Uxizandre a lowly 161 before the race.

And despite being nine-years-old, there is a strong case that Aso is still progressive. He was off the track injured for 397 days between October 2017 and his comeback in November 2018. In his pre-injury career he competed in eight open chases and posted an average RPR of just 151; post comeback he has been awarded RPRs of 163 at Newbury and then a career-best 166 at Cheltenham. Evidence suggests he has not yet reached the ceiling of his natural ability.

Aso’s record at Cheltenham also bears closer scrutiny. He’s raced at the Festival three times, and could only finish 11th in the 2015 County Hurdle and 5th in the 2016 Arkle on his first two attempts, but those were at odds of 33/1 and 66/1 respectively, so he handled the track with no issues. But it is Aso’s third visit to the festival that is of such interest, because in 2017 – as a weaker horse, remember – he managed to finish third in the Ryanair Chase at odds of 40/1. In fact, his overall course and distance record is excellent: 2nd/8th (lost a shoe)/3rd (Ryanair)/1st.

Given the importance of Cheltenham and festival form – 53% of all the festival races in the last 12 years have been won by horses with proven Cheltenham form (from a much smaller pool of entries) – Aso has every chance of posting another impressive showing. The only remaining potential negative is his target, but Venetia Williams confirmed after his New Year’s Day victory that the Ryanair would now be his main aim. Unfortunately the 33/1 I managed to get (see Twitter!) went before I could post this, but at a best price of boosted 25/1, a small each-way bet is still advised against a field without a definite superstar.

Champion Chase

Altior dominates the market, and rightfully so. He has won against all his rivals in all conditions, is seemingly tactically invincible with his high cruising speed and deadly finishing kick, and has proven he’s not ground-dependent by winning on all types of ground. For an each-way bet to be value, the ‘win’ part must represent as fair a price as the ‘place’ part, and given just how likely Altior is to win this race – quotes of 1/2 are perfectly reasonable – then there is no ante-post value to be found. Instead, simply watch this magnificent horse add to his victory tally!

 

Advised Bets (10/01/19)

Bristol de Mai – Gold Cup – 1pt e/w 33/1 NRNB (Paddy Power) 

Aso – Ryanair Chase – 0.5pts e/w 25/1 (Ladbrokes & Hills – both offering ‘boost’)

The Path To Glory: Part One

The Path To Glory?

Now that the jumps racing season is in full swing, even the most dedicated follower can struggle to keep up with the volume of quality horses on show. This feature will aim to keep readers fully informed of all the most vital developments, focussing on results on the racecourse rather than speculation off it. Initially, it will identify horses to track across the various national hunt disciplines, but as the season hots up and the form lines starts to intertwine, it should offer some value ante-post options for the big races and the Cheltenham Festival itself. All aboard The Path To Glory!

Novice Hurdlers

The first young horse to really make an impression this season was Pym, a Nicky Henderson trained 5-year-old who won in nice style over 2 miles at Chepstow. A man of habit, Henderson has tended to use this race for his serious Supreme Novice Hurdle contenders over the years, and sent the mighty Altior here in 2015. However Altior bolted up by 34-lengths, and therefore we must also note the runner-up Deyrann de Carjac, who got within just two lengths of Pym despite carrying six pounds more. Alan King said that Carjac is “a lovely horse…and I would hope and think he is one of my better novices”. Henderson will also be hoping that proves to be the case; if so, Pym could be a real Supreme contender.

Two to stand out at Chepstow over a slightly longer trip were Secret Investor and Double Treasure in the 2.5 mile Persian War, which boasts Silviniaco Conti and Blaklion as recent victors. This looked like a good renewal, with the front two well clear of the rest and given punchy RPRs of 146 and 143 respectively. Secret Investor looked to have plenty in hand at the finish, and trained by Paul Nicholls he is certainly one for the tracker even at this early stage. Third-placed Gosheven shaped well but was outpaced, and as an unexposed Hobbs horse, he could be of serious interest in a handicap over slightly further.

Nigel Twiston-Davies sent two of his brightest novice hurdle prospects on the long journey to Carlisle in the quest for some cut in the ground, and both returned home victorious. Good Boy Bobby and Al Dancer showed an equally gutsy attitude at the finish, seeing off determined challenges from Weather Front and the well-fancied Windsor Avenue to score over 2m1f. Of the two, it was Good Boy Bobby who caught the eye as a better hurdler, posting a quicker time than his stablemate with his more efficient hurdling technique.

Two novice hurdlers impressed at Cheltenham’s showcase meeting. Dinons could have won doing handstands, cruising to a large-margin win over 3 miles for Gordon Elliott. The Irish trainer struggled to hide his excitement afterwards, saying he “wouldn’t be surprised to see him back over here again for a graded 3-mile race. He gallops and stays and if his jumping gets a bit slicker he could be a very nice horse.” He also fits exactly the profile of the sort of horse that generally wins the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham: battle-hardened, experienced and reliable. With a striking visual impression, a good profile and a nod at the target from his trainer – the two-time running champion trainer at the festival, let’s not forget – everything is in place for an ante-post bet. So DINONS is this column’s first selection…we’re up and running!

And over 2m5f Canardier won in visually striking style, with the front two well clear, and obviously relished the undulating track and stiff finish. The owners would “definitely love to be back in March,” confirmed trainer Dermot McLoughlin, so note him down for the Ballymore.

Among the mares, Posh Trish made a good start to the season, beating her competition at Chepstow easily enough. She wasn’t embarrassed (finished 10/20) in the Mares’ Bumper at Aintree in April and at only 5-years-old could yet develop into a live contender for the Mares Novices at Cheltenham given her apparent progression from April to October.

Novice Chasers

Is there anything more exciting than seeing a top hurdling prospect take to fences like a natural? Maria’s Benefit certainly falls into that category, having smashed some stiff-seeming competition at Newton Abbott with a flawless round of jumping. Winner of five hurdle races last season, she arrived at Cheltenham well-fancied for the Mares’ Novices Hurdle, but in trying too hard to force the pace against Laurina she faded into fourth. Yet in her seasonal reappearance her over-exuberance looks to have been tamed – she even settled happily in 2nd for a couple of furlongs when Flying Tiger lit up – and she finished the job like a seasoned professional with a decisive turn of foot two furlongs out. Runner-up Mont des Avaloirs should not be discounted, however, as he didn’t look to enjoy the soft-to-heavy ground. And on this form line, Laurina could indeed be a Champion Hurdle contender.

Another mare to have taken a shine to chasing is Colin Tizzard’s Drinks Interval, now rated 147 after a 10-length open company win, and on that basis one to consider for graded races given her mares’ allowance. Her trainer – not normally one to get carried away – agreed after her victory that she “could go to the big tracks now. Her jumping is improving. She has got good form on softer ground and we’ll try to grind her some black type this season.”

The super-consistent hurdler Spiritofthegames has been sent chasing by Dan Skelton this term – perhaps surprisingly given he looked to have a valuable hurdle handicap in his grasp – but immediately vindicated the trainer’s decision by beating some highly rated horses in a listed race at Chepstow. Sent off the 7/1 outsider of four, he may have benefited from Master Tommytucker’s fall, but saw off his other two rivals Monbeg Legend (OR 147) and Poetic Rhythm with relative ease. “We always hoped he could step up a level over fences,” said a delighted Skelton “and he is very good fresh. But he doesn’t want to race right-handed.” There is a question mark over just how good this form is, however, after Monbeg Legend’s no excuses defeat to the versatile – but possibly not top-drawer – Cubomania at Cheltenham. This form line could prove instructive over the course of the winter.

Lough Derg Spirit won over 2.5 miles at Wetherby, his striking turn of foot having pressured decent prospect El Terremoto into a mistake four out. But Nicky Henderson’s Arkle hope made two jumping errors himself at three and two out, the former a particularly novicey mistake, and he will have to improve his jumping technique to be a true graded race contender. Yet rider Nico de Boinville described the errors as “nothing too major”, and added more importantly that “they didn’t knock his confidence…and he’s been schooling well”.

A more surprising development was Dynamite Dollars’ explosion [sorry] onto the top-class novice chasing scene. This steady 132-rated hurdler delivered a 9-length demolition [really sorry] of 142-rated odds-on favourite Highway One O One at Market Rasen, and looks like a chasing natural for Paul Nicholls.

On the other hand, a hurdler with a big reputation flopped on chase debut at Ffos Las. Vision des Flos was runner up in two Grade One hurdles at Aintree and Punchestown in April, and went off Evens favourite despite a deep-looking field. However he never settled at all, unseated Tom Scudamore at the 6th, and then ran most of the rest of the 2m5f without his jockey. His next run will be instructive.

Hurdlers

On ground described as ‘good’ at Kempton – but which seemed quicker – Verdana Blue easily dispatched the field in a listed 2m contest. The performance was visually impressive, but given the race conditions she was a worthy odds-on favourite, and another note of caution was added by Nicky Henderson, who reminded punters that “she has to have this [quick] ground”.

The Welsh “Champion Hurdle” – actually a Class 2 handicap, don’t forget – saw legendary The New One finish in a sad and distant 7th place, with Nigel Twiston-Davies unable to rule out retirement as an option. The winner, Silver Streak for Evan Williams, was backed like defeat wasn’t an option and at just 5-years-old still looks progressive even off a revised mark of 145. Bigger prizes could yet be within his grasp this term.

Among last season’s juveniles, we are yet to see potential superstar We Have A Dream, but two of the other high-profile 4-year-olds were beaten over 2 miles at Cheltenham. Gumball, heavily backed before the off, was dreadful. A generous interpretation is that he may need a flat track, having now been well beaten at HQ on all three starts; a less generous judge would question the validity of his form last season. Alan King’s Redicean was friendless in the market, yet although he was beaten he did show a fighting attitude, staying on gamely up the hill to claim second place. He shaped like a progressive horse that wants further, and had to give no fewer than 15 pounds to the Irish-based winner, Pearl Of The West, who looks a handy front-running mare. The Mares’ Hurdle in March was confirmed as her season’s target by trainer John McConnell, and this may in time rank as decent form.

Chasers

Due to a combination of the racing calendar and the fast ground, there hasn’t yet been any truly top class open chasing action in the UK, but two horses have shown signs of coming back to their best.  Mia’s Storm had a very satisfactory pipe-opener in a class 2 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter and seemed more like her exuberant self again. She seemed to lose confidence last season after a nasty fall at Kempton (when setting off 5/2 favourite in the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase) but if she has regained her mettle, she may be underrated in big races run on good ground this term. Another horse potentially back to form is Kim Bailey’s Charbel, who won a valuable 2.5 mile handicap chase at Chepstow off a stiff mark of 154, and now rated 159, will surely be seen back in graded company this season. This efficient jumper pushed Altior for speed (before sadly falling) in the 2017 Arkle, and if back to that level, can again be a player in top races.

Meanwhile, Paul Nicholls may have found two realistic outsiders for the Ryanair. Modus was back to winning ways in a valuable handicap at HQ despite belting the fence three out, and showed steel to get his neck in front, putting to bed any previous questions over his attitude. This was a strangely run race, and Modus shaped like a stayer despite it being run over 2 miles. Paul Nicholls felt similarly, saying Modus “probably wants further than 2 miles now.” There have never been any doubts about the tough-as-nails Frodon’s temperament, but his ability has been queried. Yet shouldering top weight in a classy handicap over 2.5 miles at Aintree, he produced a foot-perfect round of jumping under the horse whisperer that is Bryony Frost and held off his rivals. Now rated in the 160s, he will be back in graded races.

In Ireland, the Grade 3 Irish Daily Star Chase over 3m1f at Punchestown saw an exemplary performance from Henry de Bromhead’s Sub Lieutenant, who dismissed Outlander by 9 lengths and Sandymount Duke by 16 lengths to record an RPR of 163 with what appeared to be a minimum of effort. With a performance like that, he could come into considerations for a festival staying chase run on truly good ground in Spring.

Juveniles & Bumpers

It’s still a little early in the season for many of the best raw, young horses to have been seen on a racecourse, but even so there have been a few eyecatchers already.

McFabulous beat an expensively assembled field at Chepstow on his first start under rules, and given that Paul Nicholls confirmed that “this was the first time he has been on grass…he hasn’t left the farm” he is certainly one to note, especially given the trainer’s further comment that “he could go for the Cheltenham bumper in November but he has schooled so he could go hurdling”.

Fergal O’Brien has a powerful team of bumper horses this term, and Strong Glance lived up to his name with a strong finish up the hill to win a deep-field bumper at HQ. The Cotswolds trainer looks to have a good stayer in the making. Runner-up Master Debonair also showed promise for Colin Tizzard, pushing the winner hard despite not being race-fit.

And finally, what you’ve all been waiting for: yes, the guessing games over Willie Mullins’ pecking order of young horses can officially begin again. Another year of speculation, confusion and, ultimately, bewilderment no doubt awaits. Kalanisi Og cost a mere €2,000 and was allowed to go off at 5/1 in a low-profile race at Galway, yet proceeded to win easily; meanwhile the much fancied and hyped Hollowgraphic sadly died from a bout of colic. You won’t often find this column advising against ante-post betting, but these events were another reminder, if one is ever needed, to stay away from Champion Bumper markets…for now at least!
Ante-Post Bets Summary

Advised Today:
Dinons – Albert Bartlett – 0.5 pts e/w – 25/1 (General)

2018/19 Season Preview

The days are getting shorter, the air is (gradually) getting colder, and department stores have started playing the same old Christmas hits over the loudspeakers on repeat – but it’s not all bad, because that means it’s time for the jumps racing season to begin in earnest. The most dedicated jumps followers may have had a flutter on some of the Summer action, but the top-class British horses will only start heading back to the racecourse over the coming weeks, starting at Chepstow. There’s a fascinating season of racing ahead, with champions looking to become all-time greats, and some of the most exciting young horses for many years seeking to dethrone them.

Perhaps the most eagerly anticipated clash may take place in the 2-mile chasing division. The undisputed king is Altior, who despite a season interrupted by injury, swept past the field using his unrivalled finishing speed to land the Champion Chase in breathtaking style. The pretender to the throne is Footpad, a horse whose pinpoint and fluid jumping technique has seen him progress from a good hurdler into a potentially great chaser: Footpad hammered the field in all five of his starts last term, including the ruthless demolition of a strong Arkle field. But with Altior trained by Nicky Henderson in the UK, and Footpad trained by Willie Mullins in Ireland, the much anticipated battle may not ultimately take place until the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Even if that is the case, it promises to be worth waiting for.

Staying chasers always capture the imagination, but with the Jockey Club offering a £1 million bonus for winning the so-called ‘Triple Crown’, and the possible return of the high-class Thistlecrack and ex-champ Sizing John from injury, jumps fans are licking their lips in anticipation even more than usual. The winner of the epic 2018 Gold Cup, Native River, is an out-and-out stayer who relishes tough conditions, which makes him ideally suited to the first of the three legs of the triple crown, the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Yet Bristol de Mai is a proven course-specialist who has an exemplary record at the Lancashire venue, and he’ll be targeted at the race by Nigel Twiston-Davies. The next major clash will be the King George, ran on Boxing Day at Kempton, a track which generally rewards a high cruising speed and out-and-out class and as such is made for unlucky Gold Cup runner-up Might Bite. And there looks sure to be yet another major player to add to the mix in the Gold Cup itself, as impressive RSA Chase winner Presenting Percy has shown he simply loves the Cheltenham hill, with a 2/2 record at the Festival. If even most of these top horses stay fit, it could be an unforgettable season of chasing action.

The hurdling divisions also contain no lack of intrigue. Two-time Champion Hurdler Buveur d’Air is still only 7 and has every chance of retaining his crown, although he never truly convinced last season, only getting up by a neck to beat Melon at Prestbury Park. That could tempt Gordon Elliott into keeping the most exciting horse in training over hurdles this term. That horse is potential superstar Samcro, who lived up to his substantial hype when winning the Ballymore and Deloitte Novice Hurdles last season in fine style. This physically imposing specimen was bought to be a chaser, but can Gigginstown’s O’Leary brothers really resist a tilt at the Champion Hurdle? Even if Samcro does go chasing, Buveur d’Air is likely to face a serious challenge from other up-and-coming horses. Summerville Boy won a strong-looking Supreme Novices Hurdle in a quick time, but the Tom George-trained 6-year-old will need to improve his careless hurdling technique. Last year’s juveniles seemed a mixed bunch, looking to have ability but running inconsistently, until the aptly-named We Have A Dream delivered a dream performance at Aintree in April, which suggested a serious tilt at this year’s Champion Hurdle could be a reality.

Meanwhile in staying hurdles, all eyes will be on the great Faugheen, who stormed back to somewhere near his magnificent best with a 13 length defeat of two-time Stayers Hurdle champion Penhill at Punchestown in April. Was this a glorious one-off or can the 10-year-old roll back the years and dominate again?

And what of those hurdlers from last season who will now look to take on the bigger obstacles in novice chases? If Samcro does go chasing, he will prove hard to beat, but one horse who would relish a battle with him is also well-named, the reliable and battle-hardened Kalashnikov, narrow runner up in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and previously winner of a hard-fought Betfair Hurdle. Paul Nicholls, who has had a dearth of top-class horses recently, cannot hide his excitement with the “massive” Topofthegame, who “reminds him of Denman” – and there aren’t many bigger compliments than being compared to ‘The Tank’. Similarly, Tom George cannot understate how thrilled he is at the prospect of Black Op going chasing, and training genius Nicky Henderson loves Santini’s chances this coming season. With the amount of talent in this division, trainers will struggle to keep their prized horses apart before the Spring festivals, meaning it could be a year full of titanic novice chase battles.

However, even with all of these top clashes due to take place, the jewel in the crown of British jumps racing is still undoubtedly its fiercely competitive big-field handicaps, run throughout the season at even the smaller tracks. Punters will already be seeking clues from stable tours for likely runners in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury on 1st December, twice won by Denman and possibly the highest class handicap of the whole season. Of course, the biggest betting race of the year will be the Grand National, and ante-post wagers are already flying in, many on reigning champion Tiger Roll to repeat his victory or 2017 winner One For Arthur to re-gain the title.

Thankfully there’s an almost limitless amount of tremendous racing to watch before we reach Aintree in April. From now until then, every weekend will have at least one meeting of major quality, midweek races are becoming more and more punter-friendly too. So don’t make the mistake of waiting until Cheltenham in March – the action starts now. I’ll be keeping you up to date with all the developments through the season, with a round-up every two weeks, so bookmark this page, and see you back here soon.